The Reserve Bank has delivered a massive credit crunch
The 300 basis point increase in the cash rates has delivered one of the biggest falls in lending ever seen. The risk of a recession to follow cannot be ignored
As interest rate rises bite, the Reserve Bank should not raise rates next week
The cost of mortgages is soaring and households are spending less in the shops – the Reserve Bank should hold off on raising rates again next week
January 2023
Inflation looks to have peaked but the RBA set to keep raising rates
Most economists believe inflation has peaked and yet the Reserve Bank is still expected to raise rates next month despite real wages falling by more than 4% last year.
The Reserve Bank needs to wait before raising rates again
Home loans have fallen sharply in the past year, and the rate rises are clearly having a major impact. As such the Reserve Bank needs to wait before raising them again.
A new tool reveals how badly the Stage 3 cuts mismanage the budget
The Stage 3 tax cuts will cost $300bn in their first 9 years. A new tool shows how we can spend the money better
December 2022
The latest figures from the Fair Work Commission suggest no sign of a wages-prices spiral
The average annual wage growth in enterprise agreements not only remains well below inflation, it shows little sigh of increasing.
A Record Interest Shock Hitting Australian Households
The past 6 months has seen a record rise in the amount of interest households are having to pay
Minority Report
This week*, Duncan and Mark review 2002’s Minority Report, directed by Steven Spielberg and starring Tom Cruise along with Colin Farrell, Samantha Morton, Max von Sydow (a regular on this podcast) and Neal McDonough. This is a film loosely based on Isaac Asimov’s short story The Minority Report. Seriously, by loosely we mean that the
Inequality and poverty is a policy choice – and the Stage 3 tax cuts will make both worse
When you reduce the revenue available to fund government services, you inevitably increase inequality
Nearly 900,000 people are working more than one job
As wages fail to keep up with inflation a record number of poeple are having to work more than one job to get by
The economy is slowing as the Reserve Bank hits the brake
The build up of savings during the pandemic is over – now we need strong income growth to keep the economy going as the Reserve Bank tries to slow it.
The Reserve Bank needs to watch that it doesn’t push the economy off a cliff
For most of this year, the warnings and news about inflation have been one of hope for the best but experience the worst. Predictions of future inflation growth have continually been revised upwards and with it has been the suggestion that interest rates need to keep rising.
November 2022
Deal on IR Reforms Sets Stage for Faster Wage Growth
Industrial Relations Reform Sets Stage for Significant Acceleration of Wage Growth.
Wall-E
What happens when your pet dog has a disagreement with your laptop? You can’t publish this week’s episode last week like you were supposed to! Despite the delay (we’re very sorry, comrades), it’s Wall-E time! And what perfect timing given recent events – Wall-E depicts an idiotic future that only someone like Elon Musk could
Rough times ahead for Australia’s economy as oil, gas and coal companies celebrate
The latest economic outlook from the OECD highlights the precarious path for Australia over the next few years.
Go Home On Time Today!
New research shows Australian workers are on average working 6 weeks unpaid overtime per year, costing over $92 billion dollars in unpaid wages across the economy. 2022 marks the fourteenth annual Go Home on Time Day (GHOTD), an initiative of the Centre for Future Work at the Australia Institute that shines a spotlight on overwork
Australians Working 6 Weeks Unpaid Overtime, Costing Economy Over $92 Billion: Go Home on Time Day Report
New research shows Australian workers are on average working 6 weeks unpaid overtime per year, costing over $92 billion dollars in unpaid wages across the economy. The average worker is losing over $8,000 per year or $315 per fortnight due to what researchers have branded “time theft”. 23 November 2022 marks Go Home on Time
Stronger wages growth from enterprise agreements, strongest from unions
The latest wage rises from enterprise agreements show good improvement, but overall, workers continue to see their wages lag behind inflation
Wages growth improves but real wages fall at a record rate
The latest wages price index figures show that for the first time since 2013 wages grew by more than 3% in the past year.
Restoring Collective Bargaining Coverage Would Boost Wage Growth: Research Report
Proposed reforms to Australia’s industrial relations laws are likely to support higher coverage for collective bargaining in the national labour market, and provide a boost to stagnant wage growth according to new research from the Centre for Future Work. The report reviews historical data on the erosion of collective bargaining in Australia, and its close
Gas companies are profiting off of human misery – we need a windfall profits tax
Russia’s illegal invasion of Ukraine caused a massive surge in gas and LNG prices that have enabled gas companies around the world, including Australia to make record-level profits.
Multi-Employer Bargaining Necessary for Fixing Wages Crisis
Proposed reforms to Commonwealth industrial relations laws would create more opportunities for collective bargaining to occur on a multi-employer basis, rather than being limited solely to individual workplaces or enterprises. Business groups have attacked this proposal as a dramatic change that would supposedly spark widespread work stoppages and industrial chaos.
IR Reforms To Close Off The ‘Nuclear Option’ Will Protect Wages and Entitlements
New research from the Centre for Future Work quantifies the dramatic risks faced by workers whose employers unilaterally terminate enterprise agreements during the course of renegotiations. This aggressive employer strategy, which became common after a precedent-setting 2015 court decision, would be curtailed by new industrial relations legislation proposed by the Commonwealth Government.
With household incomes set to fall, we need to think about what matters in the economy
The current tightening of monetary policy is undoubtedly having an impact. While it may take some time for the slowing of inflation to flow through to the official CPI figures – especially given the level of inflation that is being imported – the economy is set to slow drastically.
Would further interest rate rises do more harm than good?
In the past 7 months, the Reserve Bank has increased the cash rate by 275 basis points. That is as fast as any time since the RBA became independent. Given the pace of inflation growth, the rises are not wholly without cause, but as policy director, Greg Jericho notes in his Guardian Australia column the main drivers of inflation are now easing, and wages are yet to take off. In that case, should the RBA continue to raise rates given it will only slow the economy further?
October 2022
Predator
US military imperialism, meet your biggest threat: a full-scale Soviet invasion force on your Latin-American doorstep. This film also features a highly advanced extraterrestrial lifeform hunting humans for sport. Only one man, and his crack special forces team of muslce-bound misogynists, can put an end to both. Yesterday’s Tomorrow Today is sponsored by the Carmichael
Rental prices are going up fast across Australia
People around Australia have been seeing the advertised prices of rents increasing, now the inflation figures are catching up.
Inflation is soaring and real wages are plummeting
On Wednesday the latest inflation figures showed that in the 12 months to September prices across Australia grew by 7.3% – the fastest rate since 1990.
The Budget shows the big hole in Real Wages
The Government acknowledges the need to get wages growing again, but the budget reveals just how big the task is
Worrying signs of weak wages growth
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jake@australiainstitute.org.au