Faces of the future Senate

A new report has mapped current polling trends to predict the make-up of the Australian Senate over the next two terms of Parliament. The results show a likely outcome with an entrenched cross bench with an increased One Nation presence, a stable Greens block. 

[Full report in PDF below]

Between March and May 2017 The Australia Institute commissioned two special omnibus polls, conducted by Research Now, specifically on Senate voting intention. The national poll samples were 1,420 and 1,408 for a total representative sample of over 2,800 Australians. 

“While polls can change, if voter attitudes maintain we would see a big crossbench with similar numbers of Greens and Xenophon Team members, and half again as many One Nation members in the Senate,” Executive Director of The Australia Institute, Ben Oquist said.

“The double dissolution election in 2016 occurred just as One Nation was beginning to re-emerge on the Australian political landscape. Since then, polling has their vote doubling.

“On current numbers, after two half-Senate elections there would be possibly 6 – and up to 8 – One Nation members.” 

“The surprise appearance of 4 One Nation Senators after the 2016 election could be just the beginning of entrenching the party as a major new crossbench block,” Oquist said.

Summary of results

Current

2019
half-Senate

2022
half-Senate

Double Dissolution

Liberal/National

29

29

26

24

Labor

26

27

26

27

Greens

9

8

10

9

One Nation

4

4

6*

6

NXT

3

3

2

4

Independents

1

1

2

5

Lambie

1

2

2

1

Hinch

1

 

 

 

Conservatives

1

1

 

 

LDP

1

 

 

 

Unknown

 

1

2*

 

*Potential for up to 8 One Nation seats.

Related research

Media Enquiries

Anna Chang Communications Director

0422 775 161

anna@australiainstitute.org.au