Between Sense and Nonsense

The predictive power of the electoral pendulum
by Bill Browne

The electoral pendulum performs no better than an alternative method, the cube law, in predicting the overall result of an election. In its common, alternative use as tool to predict individual seat changes, it is successful less than half of the time.

Note: An earlier version of this report said that the electoral pendulum had an error of 2 in the 2001 election. It actually had an error of 3. This has been corrected in the updated version of the report.

Full report