A moment to celebrate | Between the Lines
The Wrap with Greg Jericho
It is easy for progressives to find things to complain about. It’s not because we are miserable, but unfortunately, we are too aware of the realities of life for many who never get a voice, aware of the crisis of climate change, and aware of the inequalities in the system that prevent a better society.
So, when a government does a good thing, we should take a moment to celebrate – especially when it means a long and hard-fought fight has been won.
The Australia Institute first attacked the possibility of a capital gains tax discount back in August 1999 – a month before the Howard government made the change.
The topic has never been far from our minds.
Photo: AAP Image/Mick Tsikas
— Greg Jericho is the Chief Economist at The Australia Institute
The Big Stories
Budget 2026: Chalmers unveils his “ambitious” Budget but rules out gas export tax
Treasurer Jim Chalmers has announced what he described as “the most significant tax reform package in more than a quarter of a century,” but critics have lambasted the decision not to include a tax on gas exports.
The Greens were quick to condemn Labor’s fifth budget for failing to include a 25 per cent flat levy, despite the proposal gaining significant momentum in the lead up to Tuesday’s budget.
“Labor has chosen corporate profits over people,” said Greens leader Senator Larissa Waters.
“Tinkering around the edges of a broken system and spending billions for corporations and the 1 per cent: that will be the legacy of the Albanese-Labor government,” she said.
Budget 2026: Government targets investor tax breaks and trust loopholes in housing reform package
The Albanese government has unveiled sweeping changes to property taxes, winding back the capital gains tax (CGT) discount and negative gearing in a bid to help about 75,000 Australians “achieve the dream of home ownership”.
From July next year, negative gearing will be restricted to investors buying newly built properties.
Capital gains will once again be taxed based on inflation – the system Australia used before the Howard government introduced the flat 50 per cent discount in 1999.
“This is probably the single best thing in the budget, something that will have a lasting positive effect for so many people,” said the Australia Institute’s senior economist Matt Grudnoff.
“For the first time, I can say that an Australian Government has introduced a housing affordability policy that will actually make housing more affordable.”
“Won’t raise a cent”: Labor gas reservation policy slammed as distraction tactic amid gas tax pressure
Labor has announced a new gas reservation policy that will require energy giants to set aside 20 per cent of exports for the east-coast domestic market from July next year.
With the announcement of this policy, the Albanese government has been accused of “caving” to the gas lobby and offering a “half-baked” solution to avoid mounting pressure for a 25 per cent export tax.
“The government is trying to shift attention away from its determination to keep giving more than half the gas Australia exports away for free,” said Dr Richard Denniss, co-CEO of The Australia Institute.
“The Albanese Government wants Australians to think it’s doing something about gas, but instead of collecting $350 million per week from a gas export tax, it is pursuing a new policy that won’t raise a cent.”
Rate rise won’t open Strait of Hormuz but will push Australia towards recession
The Reserve Bank of Australia’s decision to hit borrowers with a third straight interest rate rise heaps more unnecessary pain on home buyers and pushes Australia towards a recession, according to senior economists.
Last week the RBA lifted the cash rate from 4.1% to 4.35%, back to its highest point in 15 years, effectively undoing the three rate cuts which were delivered last year.
“The RBA [has] made the wrong decision,” said Matt Grudnoff, Senior Economist at The Australia Institute.
“Higher interest rates will do nothing to open the Strait of Hormuz. Higher interest rates cannot change the world price of oil and bring down fuel prices.
“All this does is heap more pain on already stretched households.”
Australia and Japan double down on their vision for the region: more weapons, more fossil fuels
“On Monday [last] week, Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi made her first official visit to Australia since taking office, attending the Australia-Japan Annual Leaders’ Meeting with Prime Minister Anthony Albanese. The two leaders signed multiple new agreements, including increasing defence cooperation and strengthening energy security,” writes Dr Suhailah Ali, the Director of Climate Justice at Jubilee Australia Research Centre, in The Point.
“In the midst of the global energy crisis sparked by the US-Israel war on Iran, Australia and Japan’s recommitment to fossil fuels is feeling less like energy security and more like a desperate attempt to maintain a beleaguered and risky status quo that prioritises corporate profits over the welfare of both nations’ citizens.”
It’s not me, it’s you – Australians ready to break up with Trump’s America
A new poll conducted for The Australia Institute reveals that more than half of Australian voters believe Donald Trump is a greater threat to global security than Russian President Vladimir Putin or Chinese President Xi Jinping.
The YouGov poll of 1502 people found more than more than twice as many (59%) Australians now believe Australia’s interests are better served by a more independent foreign policy rather than a closer alliance with the United States (23%). Just one in eight (13%) Australians believe the US is a “very reliable” security ally.
“This poll represents a seismic shift in the way Australians think about the United States,” said Dr Emma Shortis, Director of The Australia Institute’s International & Security Affairs Program.
Open letter calls on Victorian Parliament to make election donation laws fair and transparent
Leading civil society organisations have signed an open letter, published on Monday 11 June in The Age, calling on the Victorian Parliament to prioritise transparency, fairness and freedom when legislating new political donation and election campaigning laws.
The letter follows the High Court ruling that elements of the state’s electoral laws are unconstitutional, leaving Victoria with no laws governing political finance and transparency. The signatories, including the Australian Democracy Network, Accountability Round Table, Transparency International Australia, The Australia Institute and national and Victorian civil society organisations, identify five principles for the Parliament to prioritise in its new laws.
“The High Court’s decision gives the Victorian Parliament a chance to go back to the drawing board, consult with voters and design a fair political finance system – one where taxpayer funding supports new entrants and challengers as well as major parties and incumbents,” said Bill Browne, Director of The Australia Institute’s Democracy & Accountability Program.
Through the fossil fuel looking glass: from Santa Marta to Australia
“Coming back from Santa Marta, where nations were planning a fossil fuel phase-out, to the Australia of new gas permits and Japan’s gas-fired diplomatic arm-twisting is like stepping backward through the looking glass,” writes Louise Morris, Advocate at The Australia Institute, in The Point.
“After spending almost two weeks in Santa Marta, a sun-drenched port city where the coal terminal looms over the Caribbean, a monument to everything the 57 nations gathered there were trying to move beyond. Governments were doing something radically pragmatic: talking honestly about fossil fuels.
“Not polishing the turd and greenwashing through phrases like “transition fuels” or laundering with terms like “energy security”. Simply naming fossil fuels as the problem and talking about what comes next.
“Then you land back in Australia. #thud”
The Win
Government to introduce tax offset and scrap capital gains tax discount and negative gearing in the 2026-27 Federal Budget
Scaling back tax breaks for property investors is the first policy change in a generation which will make housing more affordable, according to economists, following Tuesday’s Federal Budget.
“This is probably the single best thing in the budget,” said Greg Jericho, Chief Economist at The Australia Institute.
“It will have a lasting positive effect for so many people.”
The government will also scrap the 50% capital gains tax discount, introduced by the Howard government a generation ago, as well as scrap negative gearing for new investors buying existing properties from July 2027. It will continue to be available to those buying new homes.
The Bin
“It’s cruel”: Huge cuts to NDIS funding
If first home buyers are the big winners from the budget, the big losers are National Disability Insurance Scheme (NDIS) participants.
The government will slash more than $36 billion from the scheme, cutting out around 160,000 participants.
“It’s pretty cruel, especially when the government has not decided to do things like tax gas, do some other things that would raise some real revenue,” says Greg Jericho, Chief Economist at The Australia Institute.
The Quote
“A taste of bravery, but not quite the fierce action this moment demands.”
– Gemma Killen, Executive Director of the Working with Women Alliance, on the 2026-27 Federal Budget.
Podcasts
Budget 2026: Housing changes to slowly reverse decades of damage | Dollars & Sense
Greg Jericho and Elinor Johnston-Leek discuss the federal budget, the latest wages data, and why the government is making Australian workers wait-o for the WATO.
Listen now:
The United States we thought we knew is gone | After America
On the 100th episode of After America, Dr Emma Shortis and Angus Blackman discuss new Australia Institute polling on Australians’ views of Trump, the deadlock between the United States and Iran in the Strait of Hormuz, and what it might take for the Australian government to get out of the AUKUS submarine deal.
Listen now:
Budget 2026: Serious housing reforms but a missed opportunity to tax gas exports | Follow the Money
Matt Grudnoff and Ebony Bennett discuss the government’s important changes to negative gearing and the capital gains tax discount, its “brutal” cuts to the National Disability Insurance Scheme (NDIS), and why some “broken promises” may not be such a big deal in the eyes of Australians.
Listen now:
What’s On
In conversation with Jane Caro – Brisbane
Wednesday 20 May | 6:30pm AEST | Avid Reader Bookshop, West End
Join Jane Caro in conversation as she discusses her latest essay, Rich Kid Poor Kid: The battle for public education.
For decades, Australia has been pumping money into private education while public schools struggle. The current system contributes to greater inequity, decreased integration of different communities and even traffic jams as parents are more likely to drive their kids to a private school further from their house.
In Rich Kid Poor Kid, Caro walks through the decades of policy decisions that have created this situation and identifies the choices that have created the current education crisis.
Women Who Win with Antoinette Lattouf
Friday 29 May | 11am AEST | Online
Join Antoinette Lattouf as she discusses her new book, Women Who Win: Celebrating courage, conviction and change.
Across history, women were told to sit down, smile and stay quiet.
Spoiler alert: they didn’t. They spoke out, stood tall – and ruined the patriarchy’s day. Because of them, women won.
Journalist and human rights advocate Antoinette Lattouf takes us on a gripping journey through women who defied expectations and shattered cultural and legal barriers – usually while being cast aside and asked to calm down.
Politics in the Pub: Rich Kid Poor Kid
Wednesday 3 June | 6:30pm AEST | Verity Lane Market & Online
Join Jane Caro AM and Dr Richard Denniss, discussing Jane’s new Vantage Point Essay, Rich Kid Poor Kid: The battle for public education.
For decades, Australia has been pumping money into private education while public schools struggle. Whether it’s crumbling classrooms, overworked teachers or cuts to music and STEM programs, the system is reaching breaking point. At the same time, with higher rates of private school attendance and the marketisation of education, parents have increased anxiety when faced with the decision of where to send their child. The current system contributes to greater inequity, decreased integration of different communities and even traffic jams as parents are more likely to drive their kids to a private school further from their house.
Copies of Rich Kid Poor Kid: The battle for public education will also be available for purchase on the night, or can be purchased online on The Australia Institute website.
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