Bending the Trend

The role of policy, prices and pamphlets in driving emissions reductions

The Morrison Government has released a ‘whole of economy plan’ to achieve net zero emissions by 2050. While they are yet to reveal the underlying economic modelling on which the plan was based, it is still possible to consider the plausibility of the results of the modelling even when the assumptions behind the modelling remain concealed.

This paper focuses on the plausibility of the Morrison Government’s belief that the course of the Australian economy can be significantly altered without changes in policy, without the introduction of taxes and without the introduction of new regulation or indeed legislated targets. In short, the Morrison Government’s ‘whole of economy plan’ is based on the idea that it is possible to bend the trends in the economy without pulling on any of the traditional policy levers. Evidence is presented to suggest the plan is fanciful.

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