Analysis: Regional Winners and Losers from Government Tax Plan Revealed

All five Tasmanian electorates are among the biggest losers of the Government’s income tax cut plan, inner-city electorates in Sydney and Melbourne are the biggest winners, and South Australia and Central & North Queensland get at least 30% per capita less than electorates in Sydney and Melbourne.

The analysis by the Canberra-based think-tank’s senior economist Matt Grudnoff reveals the entire population of Tasmania receives less from the tax cut than the top-ranked electorate: the electorate of Sydney.

Key findings:

  • South Australians get 36% less per capita from the top-end tax cut than Sydneysiders
  • Central and North Queenslanders get 30% less per capita from the tax cut than Sydneysiders
  • The entire state of Tasmania receives less from the tax cut than the single electorate of Sydney
  • Tasmanians get almost half (44% less per capita) the tax cut compared to those living in the city of Sydney

Even within the city of Sydney, the tax cut is not spread evenly, with a stark divide per capita between Eastern and Northern Sydney ($831 per capita) compared to Western Sydney ($463 per capita).

“This tax cut most benefits high-income areas and wealthy inner-city electorates while lower-income areas not only get less but are likely to bear the brunt of fewer services as a result of lower tax revenue in future years,” said Matt Grudnoff, senior economist at the Australia Institute.

“On an aggregate basis, the economic effect of the tax cuts is even starker. While the tax cuts would put an extra $259 million into the seat of Sydney, the seat of Lyons would only get $36 million when the tax cuts come in in 2024.”

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