New research reveals that the Coalition MP for Goldstein, Tim Wilson, is under serious pressure to retain his seat according to a uComms opinion poll conducted on the 27th of April.

The poll was conducted with a sample size of 855 people via telephone, with a margin of error of 3.34%. The poll is Australian Polling Council compliant, with questions and methodology publicly available.

Key findings:

• Two-candidate-preferred = 62% Zoe Daniel vs 38% Tim Wilson based on respondent allocated preferences
• Two-candidate-preferred = 57% Zoe Daniel vs 43% Tim Wilson based on allocating preferences on a historical basis using 2019 results in comparable seats (Wentworth, Warringah & Indi)
• Tim Wilson primary vote, including undecided leanings = 35%
• Zoe Daniel primary vote, including undecided leanings = 34%
• ALP primary vote, including undecided leanings = 14%
• Greens primary vote, including undecided leanings = 8%
• Intention to vote for Zoe Daniel was almost 10 percentage points higher among women decided voters than men decided voters (37.4% vs 28.5%).

When asked “Thinking of the upcoming federal election, if an independent MP is elected to represent your electorate and there is a hung parliament, what should that MP do?“:

• 38.9% said the MP should support Scott Morrison to be PM
• 37.1% said the MP should support Anthony Albanese to be PM
• 11.5% said the MP should support whoever they believe are best for Goldstein
• 9.8% said the MP should support whoever they believe are best for Australia

When asked “In the event of a hung parliament in which neither the Coalition or Labor have a majority, would you support or oppose an independent MP in your electorate backing Scott Morrison and the Liberal / National Coalition into minority government?”:

• 42% total support for backing Scott Morrison to become PM
• 75.9% of Zoe Daniel voters are opposed to supporting Scott Morrison to become PM (54% strongly oppose, 22% oppose), 11% are in favour.

“The two-candidate-preferred results in this poll may be slightly optimistic for Ms. Daniel, however the full results and methodology are released in the interests of transparency,” said Ben Oquist, Executive Director of the Australia Institute.

“Allocating preferences on a historical basis using 2019 results in comparable seats (Wentworth, Warringah & Indi) produces a two-candidate-preferred result of 57-43% in favour of Zoe Daniel.”