Hope is alive | Between the Lines
The Wrap with Emma Shortis
One year after Donald Trump was elected President of the United States for a second time, New York City elected a self-declared “democratic socialist” as Mayor. Zohran Mamdani beat independent candidate, disgraced former Democrat Andrew Cuomo, by nine percentage points.
In Virginia and New Jersey too, Democrats swept to double-digit victories. In California, Governor Gavin Newsom’s redistricting ballot measure (a direct response to Republican gerrymandering in Texas) also passed easily.
New Australia Institute polling reveals only 8% of Australians are genuinely convinced Australia “shares values” with Trump’s America.
“It is past time Australia rethinks national security – and focuses on fairness and climate action, not blind fealty to America.’
@emmashortis.bsky.social #auspol
— The Australia Institute (@australiainstitute.org.au) November 4, 2025 at 12:19 PM
These elections were the first real test for the Trump administration. And the results send a clear message – to both Trump and the Democratic Party.
In New York City, Virginia, New Jersey and California, locally engaged campaigns mobilised voters. Many of those voters had turned against the President. In 2024, for example, Latino voters helped Trump sweep to victory. In 2025, they are breaking for Democrats.
Politics is not fixed and there is no such thing as a safe seat.
The Trump administration will of course make every effort to make sure that is not the case. Trump is already threatening New York with reprisals because the city democratically elected someone he doesn’t like.
These Democratic victories are echoing around the world at least partly because so many of us are so deeply concerned about the state of American democracy.
New Australia Institute polling research shows just how worried we are. Half of Australians wouldn’t feel safe travelling to the United States. Only 16% of us are convinced that the United States is a “very reliable” security ally. And only 8% of us “strongly agree” that we share values with Donald Trump’s America.
The Australian government, however, continues to double down on the Alliance. In Parliament this week, the government joined with the Coalition to vote down a motion by Greens Senator David Shoebridge to establish a Senate Select Committee into the Aukus nuclear-powered submarine deal.
That’s despite the fact that, according to Australia Institute polling, most Australians would support an inquiry. Support amongst Labor voters is even higher. Over 30,000 people have signed our petition calling for a parliamentary inquiry into the deal.
Like the establishment Democrats that refused to endorse Mamdani and still insist on tacking to a mythical “centre”, the Labor Party seems unwilling to listen even to its own base on key issues like Australia’s relationship with the United States. This reluctance to engage with how the world is changing is a problem facing social democratic parties the world over.
That isn’t inevitable – as we’ve seen in the United States this week, politics can change rapidly. As Mamdani said in his victory speech, “hope is alive”. But, as he went on to say, hope is also a decision, a choice.
With your support, we choose hope every day.
— Dr Emma Shortis is Director of International & Security Affairs at the Australia Institute
The Big Stories
Leaked report undermines WA Premier’s claim that LNG exports help Asia’s clean energy transition
The Western Australian government’s claim that its domestic gas production is helping Asia’s clean energy transition has been undermined in a leaked report – which it commissioned.
“The government for a long time now has been trying to make the ludicrous argument that if you extract and export more gas, which is a fossil fuel, it will be good for the climate and reduce emissions,” said Dr Richard Denniss, co-CEO of The Australia Institute.
“It is no surprise the report was kept secret. It cost taxpayers $400,000 and did not support the government’s claims.”
Australians believe universities are too expensive and not doing their job: polling
New Australia Institute polling research shows most Australians, regardless of who they vote for, think most university degrees are too expensive.
Polling also found only 3% of Australians think making a profit should be a primary purpose of universities – however more than half believe that it currently is a primary purpose.
“To regain public trust, the sector needs to fix its governance, such as by making sure universities are overseen by those with the most at stake in their future: students and staff,” said Jack Thrower, Senior Economist at The Australia Institute.
Only 8% of Australians genuinely convinced Australia “shares values” with Trump’s America
In May 2025, Deputy Prime Minister Richard Marles said that Australia and the United States “share values” including “democracy and the rule of law”.
However, new polling commissioned by The Australia Institute reveals that only 8% of Australians strongly agree with that statement.
“Australians are deeply concerned about what is happening in the United States today – so concerned, in fact, that half of us would feel unsafe travelling there,” said Dr Emma Shortis, Director of the International & Security Affairs Program at The Australia Institute.
Putting Australia Last. 20 years worth of gas exported in past 5 years, while Australians threatened with shortages.
New Australia Institute analysis shows that over the past five years the Australian government has allowed the export of enough gas to supply Australia for more than 20 years.
The report, released today, comes at a time when Australians are paying record gas prices and constantly being told they face gas shortages.
“The Australian government’s apparent prioritisation of the interests of oil and gas multinationals and foreign nations over Australia’s long term energy reserves is deeply concerning,” said Air Vice-Marshall (Ret) John Backburn AO, Former Deputy Chief of the Royal Australian Air Force.
The Win
Human rights icon awarded Sydney Peace Prize
Navi Pillay, former UN High Commissioner for Human Rights and eminent international jurist, officially accepted the 2025 Sydney Peace Prize this week.
“To be recognised for a lifetime’s work devoted to human rights, peace, justice and equality, is both humbling and profoundly meaningful,” said Judge Pillay.
Judge Pillay recently joined Dr Emma Shortis on the After America podcast to discuss accountability in international law and the prerequisites for genuine peace in Gaza. The Australia Institute is a proud partner of the Sydney Peace Foundation for this year’s award.
The Bin
Every four hours, a gun is stolen in Australia
More than 2,000 guns are stolen every year in Australia, according to new research by The Australia Institute.
Based on data obtained from police in each state and territory, the paper reveals that at least 9,000 guns have been stolen since 2020 and over 44,000 since 2000.
“State and federal governments have been complacent, perhaps believing that gun control in Australia was sorted by the Howard Government in the 1990s,” said Rod Campbell, Research Director at The Australia Institute.
The Quote
The party of Menzies has become the party of Sky News frenzies.
– Chris Bowen MP, Minister for Climate Change and Energy, with his rhyming pants on.
Podcasts
A broken university system is letting Australia down | Follow the Money
Richard Denniss and Ebony Bennett discuss the lack of accountability in Australia’s universities, why some institutions’ claims of financial crises aren’t supported by their auditors, and what Australians think about the state of the sector.
Listen now:
Inflation beats employment by the length of the straight (sigh) | Dollars & Sense
On our 100th episode of Dollars & Sense, Greg Jericho and Elinor Johnston-Leek discuss why the Reserve Bank always seems to prioritise inflation over employment in its interest rate discussions.
Listen now:
“Everything is uncertain”: Trump-Xi meeting leaves the world on edge | After America
Trump and Xi may have come to a “deal”, but their meeting was a wasted opportunity. Plus: what do Australians think about our relationship with the US?
Listen now:
What’s On
Aiming Higher with George Williams
Wednesday, 12 November | Sydney
Join Professor George Williams AO, the Hon Dr Andrew Charlton MP and Professor Azadeh Dastyari, with Dr Alice Grundy as MC, at 5:30pm on Wednesday 12 November at Western Sydney University, Parramatta for a conversation about how to rebuild trust in higher education, restore universities’ commitment to the public good, and ensure they remain vital to our democracy and national future.
In his new Vantage Point essay, Vice-Chancellor of Western Sydney University Professor George Williams AO argues that Australia’s higher education system is at a crossroads. To secure their future, universities must reclaim their role as public institutions — putting students, staff and the community back at the heart of their mission.
Barrie, Bowers & Friends
Monday, 17 November | Sydney
The Australia Institute presents Barrie, Bowers and Friends for an evening of political insight, laughs, and a bit of sass. From the election, to what the Albanese government is doing and what is the point of the Coalition – it will all be covered by some of the smartest minds in Australian politics, led by two of Australia’s best political aficionados, Barrie Cassidy and Mike Bowers.
Politics in the Pub: Aiming Higher
Wednesday, 19 November | Canberra
Join Professor George Williams AO, Vice-Chancellor of Western Sydney University, as he explores why public trust in Australia’s universities is at an all-time low. Professor Williams will discuss his new Vantage Point essay, Aiming Higher: Universities and Australia’s Future. Drawing on his expertise in Australian constitutional law and democracy, he outlines the changes needed to revitalise Australian higher education.
For our final Politics in the Pub of 2025, Professor Williams will be joined by Dr Richard Denniss, co-Chief Executive Officer at The Australia Institute, for a conversation on how to rebuild trust in higher education, restore universities’ commitment to the public good, and ensure they remain vital to our democracy and national future.
Copies of Aiming Higher are also available for purchase on The Australia Institute website or on the night.
On belief in politics with Sean Kelly
Friday, 28 November | Online
Join journalist Sean Kelly discussing his new book, On belief in politics. In Quarterly Essay 100, Sean Kelly considers the strange transitional moment we are in. We seem sick of neoliberalism but afraid of what might replace it. We are obsessed with work but resentful of it; desperate for community but stuck inside our phones; protective of our way of life while wanting to change everything.
With vividness and insight, Kelly diagnoses the state of the nation and the prospects for change and renewal. He argues that the end of ideology may yet offer hope for a new politics. As the prime minister promotes a new nationalism, could Australia show other countries the way forward?
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