Labor Ahead in Dunkley, Stage 3 Changes a Winner with Voters

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Labor leads the Liberal Party 52% to 48% in the Dunkley two-party preferred vote ahead of the crucial March 2 byelection, according to new research from the Australia Institute.

The Australia Institute commissioned uComms to conduct a survey of 626 residents across the Federal Seat of Dunkley during the evenings of 5th and 6th February 2024 using self-completed automated voice and SMS polling methodologies. The margin of error is +/- 3.90%

The Australia Institute is a member of the Australian Polling Council. The polling methodology, long disclosure statement and margin of error for polling questions are included in the appendix of the report.

Two-thirds of Dunkley voters back Labor’s Stage 3 tax changes, with almost one-third of taxpayers in the electorate set to now get a tax cut, having been left out under the Morrison-era plan.

Key Findings:

  • On two party-preferred terms, Labor leads the Liberal Party 52% to 48% after preferences
  • Labor candidate Jodie Belya is ahead with a primary vote of 40%, ahead of Liberal candidate Nathan Conroy on 39%
  • Two-thirds (66 per cent) per cent back the changes to Stage 3, while only 28 per cent are opposed
  • More than a quarter (29 per cent) of Liberal voters also support restructuring the tax cuts
  • An extra 24,691 people (30 per cent of taxpayers) in Dunkley will now receive a tax cut after the changes to Stage 3
  • The tax changes have the support of the bulk of Labor (95 per cent), Greens (93 per cent) and independent voters (72 per cent)
  • Nine in 10 Dunkley residents (91%) agree that truth in political advertising laws should be in place before the next election, compared to one in 20 (5%) who disagree

“Labor’s changes to Stage 3 are not only economically sensible, they’re also popular with people in Dunkley,” said Greg Jericho, Chief Economist at the Australia Institute.

“These results show 2 in 3 voters support restructuring the Stage 3 cuts in favour of lower income earners, across voting intentions and age groups.

“The Australia Institute’s research shows that under the changes to Stage 3, 30 per cent of taxpayers in Dunkley who were left out of Scott Morrison’s Stage 3 plans will now receive a tax cut.

“Close to 25,000 people in Dunkley will now receive additional money in their pockets.

“Reforming the tax cuts was the right thing to do politically, economically and socially – not just in Dunkley but for all Australians.

“Our research also shows that an overwhelming 9 in 10 voters in Dunkley want truth in political advertising laws in place before the next federal election.

“Voters should go to the polls armed with the facts. In Australia, it is perfectly legal to lie in a political ad – and it shouldn’t be.

“It is time for federal parliament to draw a line under the divisive, misleading claims that have marred recent elections and pass truth in advertising legislation.”

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