Read the full analysis here.

Labor’s landslide federal election victory in May, both in seats and two-party preferred terms, was underpinned by a greater number of preferences than ever from voters who didn’t put it first on the ballot paper.

Key findings:

• The Labor Party has never received so many preferences from voters who didn’t put it first.
• The growing number of voters giving their first preference to a minor party or independent candidate is hurting the Coalition far more than Labor.
  • In 2013, 21% of voters gave their primary vote to a minor party or independent candidate. Of that, more preferred Labor (62%) to the Coalition (38%). Yet the Coalition was able to form government.
  • In 2025, 34% of voters gave their primary vote to a minor party or independent candidate. Despite an almost identical split of preferences to 2013 (62% Labor/38% Coalition), Labor won in a landslide.
• In 2025, the Liberal–National Coalition had a historically low vote, whether you measure it in first-preference or 2PP terms.

“One of the great Australian innovations is the full preferential voting system, which guarantees that every vote matters and you cannot waste your vote,” said Bill Browne, Democracy & Accountability Director at the Australia Institute.

“Even as more Australians than ever vote for minor parties and independents, their votes help decide races where it is Labor and the Coalition in contention, just as Labor and Coalition voters help decide races where independents and minor parties end up in the final two.

“But the winner-takes-all system in the House of Representatives means a growing share of Australians are not represented by their most preferred candidate. Proportional representation, like they use in the Tasmanian lower house, would be more representative of the will of the people and the diversity of Australian views.”