Australia has some of the highest rates of gambling in the world, with a third of Australian adults using poker machines at least once a year. But it’s a past-time that could be riskier than you think: At least $10 billion of the $13 billion that Aussies lose on pokies each year comes from exceeding recommended risk limits.

In 2018, consulting firm ACIL Allen produced the Fourth Social and Economic Impact Study of Gambling in Tasmania. It included a detailed survey of gamblers, including problem gamblers, which was used to calculate a “low-risk gambling limit” for Tasmanians.

The study compared low-risk gambling limits to low-risk drinking guidelines, both designed to allow people to make informed decisions about risk and the potential harms of certain behaviour.

According to the study, the limit for low-risk gambling is $240 per person per year for poker machines, and $510 per year for all gambling. Those who exceeded these spending limits were found to have almost five times the risk of experiencing gambling harm.

Other states and territories have not conducted the same rigorous analysis that ACIL Allen has for Tasmania in its study. However, an application of the Tasmanian low-risk limits and gambling rates shows a significant gap between what expenditure would be under the low-risk gambling threshold and the amount Australians really lose.

Australia Institute analysis of data on total losses to pokies in all Australian states and territories (except WA, where pokies are not permitted in pubs and clubs in the same way as other states), shows that gamblers lose almost $13 billion on poker machines each year. Even that is likely an underestimate of losses due to inconsistent reporting by each state, with some reports placing losses as high as $16 billion.

Approximately 33.4% of Australian adults gamble on poker machines, 6.6 million people excluding WA. Adjusted for inflation, the maximum pokies expenditure with a low-risk of gambling harm would be $301 per person, per year. If all 6.6 million poker-machine players gambled within the risk limit, they would spend $2 billion each year. This is a conservative estimate, because it does not account for those spend less than $301 per annum.

Australians lose $13 billion to pokies each year. At least $10 billion in poker-machine losses (84%) come from at-risk gambling according to this calculation.

If the vast majority of poker machine profits come from risky gambling, not from people gambling within responsible limits, maybe it’s time for politicians and regulators to treat the industry in line with the harm it creates?