The Wrap with Amy Remeikis

If the polls, the trend, and the vibe are all right, then voters are about to give the Albanese government another chance.

But you can feel the reluctance.  The only question that seems to remain is whether Labor will govern in its own right, or as a majority.

From the moment he became opposition leader, Anthony Albanese planned on becoming the first prime minister since John Howard to be re-elected.  He wants three terms. The old adage went that if you change the government, you change the country, but Albanese has been around politics long enough to know that’s no longer enough.

If you want to truly change the country, you need about a decade. That gives you time to refresh the statutory appointments, map out foreign relations, change the public service and shift the values of the nation.  It’s an easy criticism that Albanese has no long term plans – he obviously does.

On Thursday, he told reporters he was not a revolutionary, but a reformer and maybe, if his gamble pays off, history will judge him as such.

But his reforms are set at a glacial pace. And the world? Well that’s moving much faster.

And if Albanese and Labor don’t do something with power to measurably improve people’s lives this time around, they risk losing it all.

A lot of time has been spent picking apart the Trump victory, but scrape away the MAGA-cult and you have a lot of people who voted against the status quo. Who were so desperate for change, so hungry for something other than the more-of-the-same the Democrats were offering, that they risked Trump.

President of the United States Donald Trump speaking with attendees at a rally at Dream City Church in Phoenix, Arizona. Gage Skidmore.

Minority or not, the message for Labor this time around isn’t keep-offering-people-the-same-as last-time and call it ‘stability’, it’s use the chance you have been given to change things, before people force change upon you.

The structural, systemic issues within this country have not emerged in a vacuum.  And while much has been made about the fact that Millennials and Gen Z now have the numbers to match Baby Boomers and Gen X, that doesn’t set the stage for a ‘youthquake’ in the way it has been described.

We are talking about voters aged between 18 and 45.  The oldest Zoomer is 28.  There are millennials who have high school aged children or over. Who are grandparents. Gen Z is about to suffer the humiliation of watching their cultural chokehold loosen into a cringefest by children who would rather die than describe something as an ‘ick’. And collectively we’re pissed.

Not because we are younger than Boomers, and have yet to “mature” as Peter Dutton so condescendingly pointed out recently, but because we have less stability than the generations before us, but a hell of a lot more anxiety. And we don’t care about political truisms, nor do we have the patience for glacial reforms.

If Australia’s government doesn’t change things, then we WILL change that government, and not care about anything other than it offers something different.

Disruptors can be brilliant. They can transform nations –  Gough Whitlam managed more in three years than most do in a decade.

But they can also be Donald Trump.

The more Labor insists on working on ‘bipartisanship’ with a party that it allegedly shares no values with and has just spent the past five weeks painting as detrimental to the nation, the more it risks sending people looking for a circuit breaker. And in this country, with a conservative-slanted media, growing anger and mistrust, rising inequality, a resurgence of One Nation and vested interests focused on their own survival, that disruption is unlikely to be for the good of the collective.

But in constantly claiming that there is no hope for reform because the Coalition, whoever leads them, won’t let them, Labor reinforces its own powerlessness. It is telling people it is unable to govern, to lead, without the permission of the party voters rejected. What’s the point of having power if you just cede it to your opposition and call that governing?

There was another pathway in the last parliament – through the Greens and the crossbench – to pass stronger environmental protection laws, a more transparent National Anti-Corruption Commission, religious protections and better taxation reform, but Labor tied itself in knots pretending it wasn’t there, because it didn’t want more progressive policy.

It didn’t want to have to negotiate with progressives and go further than the middle-of-the-road track it’s stubbornly tied itself to, because Gosh Darn It, people might actually think it was a progressive government. And we can’t have that when you’re trying to keep things just as they are, but marginally better than the other guys.

People might get ideas! It might get a bit uncomfortable! The government might have to *gulp* fight for something instead of just hoping that the lack of fight will leave people in a comfortable apathy, paying no attention.

But while this election campaign has focused mainly on the productivity people can provide a nation (to the point that Albanese constantly refers to “14 million Australians” – which is just those of us with a job, leaving out 13 million people) Australia is more than its economy.

During so much of this campaign, the major parties appear to have forgotten that an economy is not just something to be “managed”. It’s people. And it’s not only those who provide productivity through labour who deserve to be counted.

An economy is people. And those people have hope beyond the material.  Hope for something better. Hope for the planet. Hope for shared values. Hope that politicians find it in themselves to be brave again and create courageous policy, that maybe, just maybe, they fight for because it’s the right thing to do. Even if it’s hard. Especially if it’s hard.

Because Australia? It is desperately lacking courage from it’s leadership. And that’s how you change a nation. If Labor keeps taking the safe route, it might just find people make the change for them.

We’ll be watching the results, and continuing to fight alongside you for a better – and hopefully braver, Australia.

As always, take care of you. Amy x

— Amy Remeikis is the Chief Political Analyst at the Australia Institute

Election Night Live

As polls close on election night and the count begins, join Richard Denniss, Amy Remeikis and Ebony Bennett for our first election night livestream!

They’ll be joined by a rotating cast experts to explain the key issues of the campaign, unpack the intricacies of our electoral system, and give a preview of what our next Parliament could look like.

Watch live from 5:30pm AEST, Saturday 3 May, on YouTube, Facebook, or on our website.

The Big Stories

Government’s foot on the gas

A gas and oil exploration drilling rig has appeared within sight of one of Australia’s most loved and iconic natural wonders, the 12 Apostles on the Great Ocean Road. The rig is run by US oil and gas corporation ConocoPhillips.

Last week, Australia approved another massive new gas export project: the Barossa offshore gas project, operated by Santos.

Barossa is one of the most polluting new gas projects under development in Australia and will pay no royalties on the gas it extracts.

One has to ask, for what?

While the huge multinational gas companies reap the rewards, Australians bear the brunt of costs, in the form of climate change-induced increases to food prices and insurance premiums, not to mention the risk of devastating oil spills and harm to marine wildlife.

Read >

Introducing What’s the Big Idea? with Paul Barclay

There is no shortage of solutions for the biggest problems Australia faces — only a shortage of bravery to implement them.

In What’s the Big Idea?, a new 12-episode Australia Institute podcast, asks contributors to our first book about their big picture thinking on how we can change Australia for the better.

In the first episode, Executive Director Dr Richard Denniss joins host Paul Barclay to discuss why Australia can in fact curb fossil fuel exports.

You can subscribe to the series on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

Listen now >

Five priorities for the next parliament if we want a liveable Australia

Climate and nature crises won’t pause while politics plays out. The environment doesn’t care who’s in government — but Australians should, writes Polly Hemming. She’s put together five urgent, evidence-based actions ready to go.

“If we want to avoid catastrophic climate and biodiversity collapse, the next parliament has a clear path forward.”

Read more >

Talk about preventing domestic and family violence is big, funding less so

Domestic and family violence is a serious and ongoing threat to the security and safety of Australians. On average, one woman was killed every ten days by a current or former partner in 2024. An appalling statistic.

Unfortunately for Australia, when our media and political mainstream talk about ‘security’, it usually means ensuring Australia has the newest and fanciest submarines, aircraft and other weapons. While the major parties have talked a lot about preventing domestic violence, their actual funding commitments pale in comparison to their promises to increase defence spending.

The Coalition has just announced a $90 million domestic violence strategy, which is less than half a per cent (0.4%) of its $21 billion promised increase to defence spending.

Read >

Major holes in the major parties’ election pitches

Sifting through slogans and dodging dreary debates, the team at the Australia Institute has put together a list of five practical ideas that have been missing from the mainstream.

What’s stopping the next Parliament implementing policies that would raise revenue, reduce pollution, and help lift kids out of poverty? Nothing, bar from a dose of political courage.

Power and resistance flow through everyday acts of courage. Together, we hold quite a lot of power. The only difference is whether you want to use it to uphold the status quo, or to change it.

– Polly Hemming speaking at the Climate Integrity Summit 2025.

Read >

Sending the salmon stoush to the UN

Seventeen civil society organisations including the Australia Institute have written to UNESCO and the IUCN asking for World Heritage Centre officials to visit Tasmania to assess the damage the salmon industry is doing to Tasmania’s Wilderness World Heritage Area.  This would be a huge international embarrassment, but it needs to happen. Macquarie Harbour and the endangered Maugean Skate are running out of time and options.

The Australian Government has weakened the nation’s environmental laws for its own cheap, domestic political purposes. It was rushed, mismanaged, completely devoid of scrutiny, and rammed through parliament in the dead of night, with the support of the opposition, while Members of Parliament were focused on the federal budget.

View the letter >

Australian universities slash costs, staff and courses, while lavishing hundreds of millions on themselves

Australia’s universities spend hundreds of millions of dollars on travel, marketing and consultants, while cutting costs, staff and courses, according to new research by The Australia Institute.

The boom in discretionary spending comes at a time when Australian universities are plummeting down international rankings, largely due to sweeping cuts in core areas of their business, like employing teachers and providing high-quality courses for students.

Read >

The Win

Tomorrow, we get to vote

Australians are lucky to live in a thriving, liberal democracy where we get to vote in free and fair elections. Most people in the world do not have that privilege, writes Bill Browne, Director of the Democracy & Accountability Program at the Australia Institute.

Even among liberal democracies, the Australian voting system is one of the best in the world thanks to our many democratic innovations: compulsory voting so everyone gets a say, full preferential voting so you can’t waste your vote, and a proportional Senate which allows for a diversity of voices.

Even an independent electoral commission sets us apart, with voters in other countries victims of partisan voter suppression and gerrymandering.

But we cannot take democracy for granted. Over the last 10 years, the world has seen democratic backsliding. Voting is the most obvious, but by no means the only, form of civic participation. Attending a peaceful protest, joining a political party or movement, volunteering and just discussing politics with friends and family are all ways of strengthening civic life and Australian democracy.

The erosion of faith in democracy in the US has done so much damage. What our election campaign is showing is just how precious Australia’s democratic institutions are.

The Bin

Coalition cuts don’t add up

The Coalition costings arrived at the last minute…and it was quickly obvious why, writes Greg Jericho.

Their big idea to reduce spending is to cut 41,000 public servants from Canberra, which they estimate they will save $17.2bn over 4 years.

Apparently, this will not involve cuts or voluntary redundancies or frontline staff or anyone from Defence or security agencies.

In December 2024 there were only 69,438 APS jobs in Canberra. Once we exclude those areas we are left with 46,293 jobs.

So the Coalition costing assumes that nearly 90% of Canberra’s APS will resign over five years. If the Dept of Health counts as frontline, then we’re assuming 99.2% of people quit. And we know the Coalition loves the War Memorial, so if that is also excluded the Coalition is now assuming that over 100% of the remaining public servants will resign.

These costings might “add up” in a spreadsheet, but they revealed a distinct lack of policy acumen.

Read >

The Quote

“We’ve been very clear…”

said Opposition Leader Peter Dutton, again, and again, and again.

In fact, he has said “clear” or “very clear” 92 times in press conferences over the course of the election campaign.

Read more >

Podcasts

Could the polls be wrong? | Follow the Money

As election day approaches, former Fairfax Chief Political Correspondent Professor Mark Kenny joins Glenn Connley to discuss the performances of Anthony Albanese and Peter Dutton on the campaign trail, plus Australians’ response to Trump’s return, on this episode of Follow the Money.

Listen now:

Your election questions answered | Dollars & Sense

We discuss the latest inflation data and answer your questions about the economy ahead of election day.

Listen now:

Boys will be boys | After America

Dr Prudence Flowers joins Dr Emma Shortis to discuss the Trump administration’s attempts to ‘re-masculinise’ the American economy through tariffs, its efforts to undermine trans and reproductive rights, and how culture wars are playing out in Australian politics.

Listen now:

Yes, Australia can curb fossil fuel exports | What’s the Big Idea?

Dr Richard Denniss joins Paul Barclay to discuss the importance of truth in democracy, the myths that mining is Australia’s economic ‘backbone’ and that Australia can’t ‘afford’ nice things, and how making you feel powerless is part of the strategy of the powerful.

Listen now:

What’s On

Emma Shortis – After America, presented by Gleebooks | 6pm AEST, Wednesday 7 May

Join journalist Richard Cooke as he interviews Dr Emma Shortis, Director of the Australia Institute’s International & Security Affairs program, about her new essay, After America: Australia and the New World Order.

Tickets >

LIVESTREAM | What Just Happened…Federal Election Review | 6pm AEST, Wednesday 7 May

Join Richard Denniss, Amy Remeikis and Ebony Bennett for an in depth discussion by an incredible Australia Institute panel to provide their expertise, perspective and insight on what just happened, how we got here and where we are going.

Unfortunately the in-person event is fully booked, but you can watch the livestream here.

Watch >