Australia has now cemented another authoritarian law that gives police and politicians unchallenged authority to outlaw any group they don’t like by designating them a hate group, based on vibes and maybes.

It was a  bill so bad that it spurred the Greens, One Nation, the Senate crossbench and the Nationals to join together on the same side of the chamber in opposing it.

This disparate group was united in the belief that the legislation was rushed, too broad and full of unintended consequences – even if they weren’t ideologically on the same page about why.

A bill so terrible that Attorney-General Michelle Rowland – sounding like Chat GPT attempting to avoid a direct answer – couldn’t say how it would apply in practice to people opposing a genocide. And she’ll be one of those making the decisions.

It is no secret that Ley doesn’t know what she is doing. There has never been a principle she hasn’t been willing to sacrifice for personal gain, a political position she isn’t willing to change if it proves more immediately beneficial.

And despite five weeks of winning the media narrative – if not the public – on the government’s response to the antisemitic Bondi terror attack, Ley handed Albanese everything he needed to bring about her political demise.

In deciding to support the hate group legislation against the advice of some in her party – who could actually see the trap the party was walking into – Ley sacrificed not only the illusion of authority she was clinging to over the summer, but revealed a leader guided by her worst political instincts, unable to see the liberties for the Sky News chat groups.

Andrew Hastie, who was building himself a nice little fiefdom of Liberal and One Nation refugees, managed to alienate both after contradicting himself from just a few days ago to explain why he was backing laws he had previously warned would deny freedom of speech.

Ley revealed Nationals leader David Littleproud still has limited authority over his own party – despite Barnaby Joyce’s defection – with four National Senators rebelling in the Upper House to stand against the legislation on principle, even if it meant breaking shadow cabinet solidarity for three of them.

That they didn’t care for the consequences shows just how little authority both Ley and Littleproud have.

And the only victory Ley eked out of the government was a commitment that it would inform the opposition leader when it were going to proscribe a hate group. Not consult. Not have impact. Just be told.

As one Labor MP laughed yesterday, “given the way the Liberals are going, that [opposition leader] could be Barnaby Joyce”.

Unlike the bill, which is chock full of so many potential unintended consequences that even the IPA was warning against it, the consequences for Ley were as obvious as the split in the Coalition.

Rise of One Nation

One Nation, especially with Joyce helping guide the show, are better communicators then the Coalition.

Pauline Hanson is better at speaking to the disenchanted. Joyce knows how to distill a message into bite-sized pieces those same people gobble up.

They have it easier – One Nation is not a party of government, has no say in how policy moves through the Parliament and doesn’t have to have solutions or even make sense (or be honest). But that is not new.

Joyce is personally invested in ensuring One Nation takes Littleproud’s southern Queensland seat of Maranoa. This is not out of the realms of possibility, given One Nation’s established foothold there – it finishes second ahead of Labor and benefits more from Labor voter preferences.

The MP for the central Queensland seat of Flynn, Col Boyce, is openly allowing rumours he may jump to One Nation swirl.

On current polling, One Nation could win Capricornia and Dawson, key foundations in the Nationals power base.

The decision to force Queensland Senate preselections two years out from an election means Matt Canavan – Joyce’s protege – is in a battle to hold his No.2 spot on the ticket, which if the Coalition primary keeps falling is not guaranteed. That opens up a potential fight with James McGrath (who abstained from the hate-speech Senate vote) for the No.1 spot.

Michelle Landry is talking retirement. Bridget McKenzie and the other shadow cabinet rebels are now freed from having to pretend to bite their tongues.

The Coalition’s partnership is so unwieldy it makes Henry VIII and Anne Boleyn’s marriage look almost civil.

All this and Albanese emerged a deal maker. All because Ley fell for one of the oldest political tricks in the book – if the other side is desperate to do a deal with you, then it’s because it only benefits them.

Albanese won both in failing to win (dumping the vilification part of the laws) and in convincing the Liberals to vote against themselves.

At the moment, the rise of One Nation is coming mostly at the expense of the Coalition and that’s a price Labor is happy to pay, even if it loses a couple of its own seats – and any remaining principles – in the wash-up.

Labor sees an opportunity to take LNP seats such as Longman and La Trobe, which will no doubt see it drift closer to the right as it seeks to appeal to those who would have voted Liberal, but not anymore.

But on the issue of unintended consequences, both major parties have helped shore up the conditions for the One Nation leadership team of “Barnson” (or “Hanarby”, depending on who you see as leading) to capitalise on its Joyissance, with the political funding laws they passed together last year.

When those laws were passed, it was about shoring up the major party duopoly. But in rushing to support Labor’s laws, the Coalition has handed the electoral hangman its own noose.

One Nation will receive public funding for elections that challenging independents – who may have emerged as more palpable options for soft but fed-up voters – will not receive.

One Nation will not have to worry about the same spending caps independents or minor parties will be hamstrung by because it can run its branding and call it Senate advertising.

In the seats where it will matter to the Coalition, particularly the Nationals, it will be a three-cornered contest that, if this bump in support holds and the Coalition’s fall continues, One Nation will more likely win.

Joyce knows it. He spent the summer putting in place the foundations and advising on proper state administrators, using his knowledge of three decades in the LNP and Nationals.

Now he’s speaking to National voters about how the Nationals can’t do what he can – and they’re listening.

Of course, this will eventually all come back on Labor as well, but it will be the Coalition that falls first. It’s the inevitable conclusion to 30 years of attempting to outflank One Nation on the right and alienating the voters who might have kept them relevant in the middle.

And Ley? She’ll barely be a footnote.