New Analysis from The Australia Institute has predicted that South Australia will play a key role in the next Federal Election, with a range of parties and candidates vying for a handful of seats in the Senate that will likely hold significant weight in balance of power outcomes in the new Parliament.

“When it comes to the Senate, all eyes will be on South Australia come election night,” said Noah Schultz-Byard, SA Projects Manager at The Australia Institute.

“South Australia has a strong history of supporting independent, micro and minor party candidates and our analysis shows there’s a high chance of that happening once again in 2019.

“With six Senate seats up for grabs in each state at each election, Labor and the Coalition are both expected to comfortably win two seats each in South Australia. The competition then comes down to who will take the final two spots.

“Our analysis shows that the crowded field vying for those final two seats in South Australia is likely to include the Coalition, One Nation, Centre Alliance and the Greens.

“Even under the most optimistic expectations for a likely future Labor government, they will still have to negotiate in the Senate with the Greens and Centre Alliance parties, both of which will be hoping to pick up one of the crucial two remaining seats in South Australia.

“With no major party expected to hold a majority in the Senate after the next election, the South Australian result has the potential to decide who will be in balance of power in the new Parliament.”

Summary of Analysis

The Australia Institute routinely polls the Australian population on a variety of issues, including how they intend to vote at the next election. While other pollsters only ask about House of Representatives voting intention, our polling also asks specifically about Senate voting intention.

The Australia Institute conducted a national survey of 1,459 people in November 2018 online through Research Now with nationally representative samples by gender, age and state and territory.