Republicans have control of the Senate, possibly the House of Representatives too and, backed by his handpicked Supreme Court, Trump can enact his plans to further undermine American democracy with almost unchecked power.

Australians would be naive to think the same toxic currents and ambitions can’t be harnessed here.

Vice-President Kamala Harris called Trump the day after the election to congratulate him, concede defeat and assure him of a peaceful transfer of power.

It’s in stark contrast to the violent insurrection Trump instigated last election, that saw his supporters storm the Capitol building and threaten to hang vice-president Mike Pence for refusing to overturn the election results and declare Trump the victor.

That this man, who is on tape asking Georgia’s top election official to find enough votes to reverse his election defeat, has been re-elected as president is an indictment of US democracy and its political institutions.
Yes, Trump was democratically elected, decisively so, but that does not diminish the threat he poses to democracy. Trump won not only the electoral college vote by sweeping the swing states, but the popular vote too. That does not automatically make his policies democratic. Trump plans to be a dictator “on day one”, beginning mass deportations of undocumented immigrants, as well as sacking thousands of independent public servants and replacing them with political appointees who are loyal to him.

As Paul Kelly observed, “Trump Mark II will be a more assertive president than before, battle-hardened, unpredictable, vindicated, and surely vindictive.”

He also plans to pardon a number of January 6 insurrectionists. If it weren’t a global superpower, reporters would be describing Trump as a failed coup leader and the US as an embattled democracy.

Trump’s other plans are not dictatorial, just terrible for the planet, the global economy and global stability. More massive tax cuts and putting bigger tariffs on products from China and running larger deficits might be inflationary, and have knock-on effects for the Australian economy and China’s, but they are no threat to democracy. They will cause further political instability.

His re-election will embolden the far right to unleash a torrent of hate against immigrants, women, the gay community and other minorities, as happened under his last presidency. It’s clear many Trump voters just dislike immigrants and women. As Tom Nichols wrote in The Atlantic “Those voters expect that Trump will hurt others and not them. They will likely be unpleasantly surprised, much as they were in Trump’s first term.”
Women will continue to die, in even greater numbers, if Trump enacts a national abortion ban.

And many of those who voted for him may find that his policies will enact a harsh economic toll, in addition to the devastating impacts on families, as farm workers, meat packers and construction workers are deported en masse. Democrats and progressives will be analysing how the Trump campaign blew through its blue wall states in the midwest and the rust belt. The mistakes are always plentiful in hindsight. By all accounts, Harris ran a tight campaign, but in the end this was a change election and she was the establishment candidate.

Harris lost Michigan by fewer than 100,000 votes – around the same number of Democrats who voted uncommitted in the Michigan primary to register their disapproval of how Biden was handling Israel’s genocide in Gaza. Democrats Rashida Tlaib in Michigan, and Ilhan Omar in Minnesota, who loudly and publicly opposed the genocide and Biden’s handling of it, were re-elected with larger majorities.

It turns out failing to listen to your political base has real consequences. There’s no doubt the Democrats need to do some serious soul-searching as they appear to have lost their base on multiple fronts.

As usual, there will be criticism that the Democrats didn’t tack far enough to the right. But the results show abortion rights advocates won in seven states, and lost in three, though it appears a majority of white women did not vote for Kamala Harris as expected. And progressive economic policies like raising the minimum wage and paid sick leave attracted huge support.

What it means for Australia

The implications for Australia are enormous. Great countries have great democratic institutions and yes, we are shielded against election interference by the independent Australian Electoral Commission.

But the Coalition publicly accused the AEC of bias, without foundation, during the Voice campaign.

Yes, we have compulsory and preferential voting – meaning if you vote for Pauline Hanson’s One Nation party and your candidate doesn’t get elected, your vote is never wasted and you still get a choice in who ultimately wins the seat.

But ending compulsory voting is suggested as a reform after almost every election.

On immigration, Peter Dutton has not suggested mass deportations, but he did suggest the Fraser government made mistakes by resettling Lebanese refugees here.

No Australian prime minister has appointed their immediate family to key public service positions like Trump did with his sons and daughters, but the number of political appointments to the Administrative Appeals Tribunal exploded from around 5 per cent under the Howard and Rudd/Gillard/Rudd administrations to around 40 per cent under Scott Morrison’s term, according to Australia Institute research. To think a Trump-style anti-democratic lurch to the right can’t happen here is fanciful.

Here in Australia, it is likely AUKUS and the impact of Trump on the economy will grab the headlines and it’s likely to be a bumpy road.

Trump is, at best, selfish, unpredictable and unreliable; at his worst, he is vindictive and admiring of authoritarians – hardly the ideal partner for a $368 billion nuclear joint venture.

While it’s imperative we guard against threats to democracy at home and abroad, it’s time to re-examine whether a closer military relationship with a United States led by Trump is still in Australia’s best interests.

In the history of the world has any dictator been satisfied with holding absolute power for just one day?