There are no more excuses | Between the Lines
The Wrap with Amy Remeikis
Well it didn’t take long for it to be business as usual, did it?
Not even two weeks out from a humiliating loss, the Coalition is still pretending it remains just as relevant as ever, with shadow finance minister Jane Hume issuing orders to the government on its planned modest super changes.
In case you need a refresher, Labor plans on lowering the tax break from 30% to 15% on earnings on super balances over $3 million.
So it’s not even the total. It is a tiny change that means people with superannuation balances over $3 million will get a slightly lower tax break on the earnings (like the interest) above $3 million. Everything under $3 million is untouched. You may have heard this could end retirement in Australia. It’s such a massive change that it is going to impact a whopping 80,000 people, or 0.5% of the population. Even taking into account inflation, we are talking about a giant 550,000 people from the working population of 14.5 million people.
So please, bring out your violins for the (at most) 3.5% of people this is going to impact, who will be receiving a slightly smaller tax break on their multi-million dollar super earnings, and are already (if you speak to accountants) working to restructure their assets as businesses, so they can maintain a higher tax break.
Now Jane Hume, who authored the working from home policy that helped scuttle the Coalition’s chances of being electorally competitive, who helped confuse an entire nation of people around the Coalition’s proposed public servant cuts and just as an added bonus accused Chinese-Australians handing out how-to-vote cards for Labor of being Chinese spies, is now making demands others “speak sense”.
Hume told the safe space of Sky News that Labor’s policy of lowering a tax break that most of us will never earn enough to see was a “retirement tax” (a fundamental misunderstanding of tax concessions which probably explains a lot about the Coalition’s economic offerings to date) and that she hoped economists Andrew Charlton and Daniel Mulino would talk Jim Chambers around on the plan.
“I’m hoping that they’ll speak sense to Jim Chalmers, who is, as we know, the king of spin, as opposed to a real doctor of economics. These guys might be able to help Jim Chalmers see the light on this. It’s a terrible policy,” she said.
Now the audacity is to be commended, but this would be the point where the voices elevated in the debate should have relevance.
First, some facts courtesy of chief economist Greg Jericho.
- Super tax breaks are expected to cost the budget $60bn in the next financial year
- 36% will go to the richest 10% ($22bn)
- The bottom half will get just 14% of the tax breaks.
For comparison, in 2025-26 the government will spend:
- $21.5bn on the PBS
- $17.9bn on family support
- $16.9 on Jobseeker
- $16.2bn on child care support
- $12.2bn on government schools
The point of the tax breaks is to encourage people to save so they won’t be reliant on the age pension. But the richest 10% in Australia are unlikely to qualify for the age pension which means the government is in effect spending $20bn to encourage people who would be unlikely to qualify for the age pension, to not be on the age pension.
The government announced this policy in its first term, but scheduled it for debate in a second term. And the Coalition is not alone in fighting the policy – independents such as Allegra Spender are against taxing unrealised capital gains. Chalmers is sticking to his guns, claiming a mandate and it is maybe the first example of what the Albanese government plans to do with power in this second term.
If there is no need to find ‘bipartisan support’ and listen to the Liberals on things like this, then why does the government, or indeed the media, need to elevate them as an equal voice on debates in anything? If the public has repudiated the Coalition’s view of Australia so comprehensively that it went backwards, then why should Australia be held back in any way by the Coalition’s opposition to policy?
There is an entire different path the government can take in this parliament, where it does not need to negotiate with the Coalition on anything – unless it actively chooses. And in doing so, that is a choice the government is making to not be brave. To not attempt reforms so desperately needed. To not use its power to materially improve lives.
If Australia voted against the Coalition and its version of ‘sense’ then why should it settle for a government that allows itself to be held back by it?
And if the government is able to hold its ground on thing it believes it has a mandate for, then what will it do in the senate, where voters have handed it a more progressive pathway for at least six years?
These are the sort of questions we won’t stop hassling the government over. And with your on-going help, we’ll push the government to come up with the right answers.
We’re all in. We have a giant opportunity to remake Australia into something fairer, something more value driven and something that leaves something good for the future.
Thank you for joining us. The road is long, but worth it.
Take care of you – Amy x
— Amy Remeikis is the Chief Political Analyst at the Australia Institute
The Big Stories
Nothing now stands the way of Labor and ambitious, progressive reform | Richard Denniss
After a resounding electoral victory, the big question for those inside and outside the Labor party who want to set Australia up for the enormous challenges of the 21st century is whether to push hard in parliament to deliver what the overwhelming majority of the population want, or to tread cautiously and, at best, waste precious time or, at worst, let a new, worse, right wing politics emerge, writes Richard Denniss.
Voters are yearning for a government that will act on their very real concerns about climate change, Trump’s new world order and the rapid rise in wealth inequality in Australia, linked overwhelmingly to the tax subsidies for investment housing.
Luckily for Labor the policy to-do list has been largely written by Labor oppositions and governments, of which Anthony Albanese was himself a member.
Labor’s plan for a super profits tax on the mining industry was a good idea in 2010 and an even better idea now.
Back in 2019, Bill Shorten proposed a bold raft of tax reforms that would have closed tax loopholes, simplified the system, reduced inequality and would have collected a lot more money.
Albo doesn’t have to embrace all of Shorten’s agenda, but it’s hard to believe there will ever be a better time for Labor to spell out a plan for public health, education and housing systems that so many of its voters, and its caucus, clearly want.
Australia’s nurses pay more tax than the gas industry: Australia Institute billboard in Melbourne
And let’s not forget that just last year Labor’s Tanya Plibersek had negotiated a raft of new environment laws with the Greens’ Sarah Hanson-Young, reforms that Albanese torpedoed, as he felt at the time that strengthening environment laws was too big a risk given his (mis)perception of the power of the mining industry.
The weekend result, combined with Kate Chaney’s resounding victory in the WA seat of Curtin, is clear evidence Labor was jumping at shadows.
There is no need to be scared anymore.
Labor right has used the fear of irrelevance to control the Labor left for decades. Now that it is the Liberals who are irrelevant, the biggest danger for Labor is that it is afraid to use the power voters have given it.
There’s a huge new gas rig looming over our 12 Apostles
A gas exploration drilling rig has appeared within sight of one of Australia’s most loved and iconic natural wonders, the 12 Apostles on the Great Ocean Road. Dr Emma Shortis went to take a look.
The drilling is part of gas exploration program by US oil and gas corporation ConocoPhillips in a sensitive marine environment off the west coast of Victoria and north west coast of Tasmania. An oil spill could have devastating consequences for the marine environment and coastal communities in Victoria and Tasmania. The community bears the risk while huge multinationals reap the rewards.
Our research shows we don’t need new gas projects. Australia is awash with gas. We don’t need to turn our iconic natural wonders into gas fields. We need to force the gas industry to prioritise Australians ahead of exports.
What will Labor do with its power? | Richard on ABC’s Afternoon Briefing
To help Australians understand the election result, Richard was invited onto ABC’s Afternoon Briefing.
“The big choice for Labor now is do they use the Greens to strengthen up their reform agenda in the Senate, or do they do what they did in the last Parliament and use the Liberals to water it down?”
The first big test for the newly elected government
More than 50 organisations have signed an open letter to the Prime Minister, united under one message: Climate action means no new coal and gas.
Anthony Albanese can be a leader who finally brings an end to Australia’s destructive fossil fuel addiction, while – at the same time – helping Australians through a cost-of-living crisis.
The open letter was published in The Age, the Sydney Morning Herald and the Canberra Times.
Vantage Point – our new essay series
How is the world changing with the second Donald Trump presidency?
“The America we thought we knew is over, and it isn’t coming back. For Australia, the question must be: what does our world look like after America? How might we shape it for the better?”
Emma Shortis draws on her long-standing research on America’s place in the world to answer these questions in this incisive essay.
“Through the turbulence of recent times, Emma Shortis has seen clearly and been right.” said Don Watson.
The declining influence of Australia’s traditional media
Newspapers endorsing a political party for Government used to be a big deal. But less than a third of news outlets endorsed the winning Labor Party in 2025. Is the public still listening to the mainstream press?
“This research shows that Australia’s major media outlets have little influence over how Australians actually vote,” said report co-author Skye Predavec.
Dosed-up Tasmanian salmon could pose health risks in the long run
In early April it was reported that Tasmanian salmon farmers have been using antibiotics to treat the bacteria that has killed over a million salmon, and that fish from diseased pens are being sold for human consumption, writes Dr Joshua Black, postdoctoral research fellow at the Australia Institute.
Australians have been told it’s all fine, provided the fish are withheld from harvesting for the right time and the waterways aren’t flooded with antibiotic residue.
But it’s concerningly difficult to prove the former, and we know the latter is already happening. This is no longer a solely environmental issue – it’s a public health issue, too.
The Win
Coles and Woolworths drop prices
It’s been almost two years since our report exposed the big supermarket’s price gouging, and the fact that 69% of the high inflation that was experienced after COVID was caused by excess profits from large corporations gouging higher prices.
There’s a few vindicated economists today, reading that the big supermarkets have “heard you” and are lowering prices on “hundreds” of items across their range.
Pressure works. Thank you for supporting our research that helped counter the spin from big business that these price increases were only natural.
The Bin
Attacks on preferential voting
Conservatives have taken their loss at the election out on our voting system!
One journalist from The Australian suggested preferential voting “ousted” half of the Liberal Party’s front bench.
Preferential voting is something that should always be defended – it ensures everyone’s vote gets counted and avoids fringe candidates winning in large fields with a small number of actual votes.
But suggesting candidates lost because of preferential voting also assumes voters would behave the same way were other systems in place. That is just silly, and the conservatives might do better to come up with policies that voters wants rather than attacking the process.
Podcasts
Oligarchy or democracy? | After America
Elizabeth Pancotti, economic policy specialist and former advisor to Senator Bernie Sanders, joins Dr Emma Shortis to discuss what the second Trump administration is doing to the American economy.
Listen now:
“Don’t waste it”: Labor’s historic policy opportunity | Follow the Money
Stephen Long, Walkley Award-winning journalist and Australia Institute Contributing Editor, joins Ebony Bennett to discuss the Murdoch press bogeyman, supporting the public broadcasters and the prospects for major, progressive reforms in the second Albanese term.
Listen now:
The economy (it still exists) | Dollars & Sense
Elinor and Greg discuss the latest wage data, house prices and Trump blinking on his China tariffs.
Listen now:
A rich country in a housing crisis? | What’s the Big Idea?
Maiy Azize joins Paul Barclay to discuss the why the housing crisis is an inequality crisis and why Australia needs to massively invest in social housing.
Listen now:
What’s On
Australia’s Biggest Book Club: Blue Poles with Tom McIlroy | 11am AEST, Friday 30 May
In the May edition of Australia’s Biggest Book Club, join journalist Tom McIlroy as he discusses his new book, Blue Poles: Jackson Pollock, Gough Whitlam and the painting that changed a nation.
Politics in the Pub: Australia and Trump’s America | 6.30pm AEST, Wednesday 18 June
Join Dr Emma Shortis, Director of International & Security Affairs and author of After America: Australia and the new world order, the first in Australia Institute Press’ seasonal essay series, Vantage Point. She will be in conversation with Dr Richard Denniss, Executive Director of The Australia Institute as they discuss AUKUS, free trade and how the new parliament can best represent Australian interests.
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