Beyond the Two-State Solution
Authors
Media release
The January 2025 ceasefire notwithstanding, the outlook for Palestinians remains bleak.
In the pursuit of Hamas’s destruction—an understandably appealing but completely unrealistic objective—Israel has turned Gaza into an uninhabitable wasteland. At least 46,000 Palestinians have been killed, perhaps a majority of them women and children and non-combatants. Most of its housing and public infrastructure has been reduced to rubble. At least 1.9 million Palestinians are once again displaced.
Facing the likelihood of a continuing, mutually degrading cycle of violence in the Middle East, Australia needs to address the consequences for our interests, and for the values we uphold.
In this paper, we argue that for the immediate future Australia should:
- Continue to support the right of Palestinians to self-determination and statehood;
- Contribute substantially to humanitarian relief (mainly through UNRWA, notwithstanding its proscription by Israel) and increase direct Australian aid;
- Affirm support for the observation of international law, including supporting the findings of the International Court of Justice (ICJ) and the enforcement of International Criminal Court (ICC) warrants by ICC members.
In doing so, however, Australia should avoid becoming trapped in the two-state paradigm. In particular, the Australian government should avoid being drawn into commitments to support, or contribute to, supposedly interim peacekeeping arrangements in pursuit of a two-state solution, when no clear path to Palestinian self-determination exists.
Above all, in responding to the situation in Gaza, and wider Middle East conflicts, Australia must maintain consistency between the democratic values we uphold at home as intrinsic to our identity, and those we seek to defend abroad.
Australia should focus on encouraging and, where possible, working with Israel and the Palestinians to create, through patient bargaining and coalition-building across existing divides, an integrated economic, political and security association that provides for equality between Jews and Palestinians.
Even without any near-term prospect of a durable solution to the question of Palestinian statehood, there is a regional and global need for the emergence of a more predictable and more stable balance between the strategic ambitions, objectives and interests of the key regional players.
Accordingly, for the longer term, it may be appropriate to consider ways of building support for the creation of a supra-national forum, across the entire Middle East, along the lines of the processes that led eventually to the formation of the European Union, where diplomacy, negotiation and mutual accommodation were designed to prevent the re-occurrence of mutual destruction. With sustained support from a future US administration, there may emerge, over time, a more conducive environment for a settlement of the Palestinian conflict between the parties themselves. Australia can, and should, play a role in supporting such long-term, genuine peacebuilding.
Read the full report below.