uComms conducted a survey of 855 residents in the federal seat of Goldstein on behalf of The Australia Institute during the evening of 27 April 2022 using self-completed automated voice polling methodologies.

The poll was conducted with a sample size of 855 people via telephone, with a margin of error of 3.34%. The poll is Australian Polling Council compliant, with questions and methodology publicly available.

Key findings:

• Two-candidate-preferred = 62% Zoe Daniel vs 38% Tim Wilson based on respondent allocated preferences
• Two-candidate-preferred = 57% Zoe Daniel vs 43% Tim Wilson based on allocating preferences on a historical basis using 2019 results in comparable seats (Wentworth, Warringah & Indi)
• Tim Wilson primary vote, including undecided leanings = 35%
• Zoe Daniel primary vote, including undecided leanings = 34%
• ALP primary vote, including undecided leanings = 14%
• Greens primary vote, including undecided leanings = 8%
• Intention to vote for Zoe Daniel was almost 10 percentage points higher among women decided voters than men decided voters (37.4% vs 28.5%).

When asked “Thinking of the upcoming federal election, if an independent MP is elected to represent your electorate and there is a hung parliament, what should that MP do?“:

• 38.9% said the MP should support Scott Morrison to be PM
• 37.1% said the MP should support Anthony Albanese to be PM
• 11.5% said the MP should support whoever they believe are best for Goldstein
• 9.8% said the MP should support whoever they believe are best for Australia

When asked “In the event of a hung parliament in which neither the Coalition or Labor have a majority, would you support or oppose an independent MP in your electorate backing Scott Morrison and the Liberal / National Coalition into minority government?”:

• 42% total support for backing Scott Morrison to become PM
• 75.9% of Zoe Daniel voters are opposed to supporting Scott Morrison to become PM (54% strongly oppose, 22% oppose), 11% are in favour.