First published in the Australian Financial Review – here.  The only thing that Paul Keating likes about conservative economic policy is implementing it. Last week, with trade mark cut-through, he was back to his favourite trick of visibly attacking the right while strategically undermining the left. For decades Keating has stood tall in the crowd by taking the

First published by the Australian Financial Review – here.  Economic models are like skin care products: the magic is all in the marketing. Just as honest dermatologists regularly remind consumers that expensive face creams are just “hope in a jar”, honest economists regularly remind politicians and journalists that the “results” of macroeconomic modelling are no more reliable than

No tax concession does less to stimulate innovation or employment than the capital gains tax exemption on luxury homes. Indeed, by encouraging the most wealthy Australians to park billions of dollars in spare bedrooms that gather dust and detritus from Christmases past, the exemption simply diverts capital away from productive uses. A government that is

Originally published in the Australian Financial Review – here.  The differences between rugby league and rugby union, like the differences between the disciplines of economics and finance, can seem obscure to those who aren’t fans of either. Subtle though they may be, small differences can have big impacts on the end result. Indeed, those small

First published by The Australian Financial Review – here. The mining boom tax cuts have left the Australian budget unable to collect the revenue needed to fund the services that Australians expect from their government. The Treasurer’s insistence that there is no revenue problem, combined with the received political wisdom that the family home is

In the lead-up to the 2013 election both the Coalition and the ALP pledged to make no changes to the superannuation system in the coming term of government. Stability, we were told, was what the system needed. Less than three years later both major parties are promising to change the superannuation system. Reform, we are

First published in The Australian Financial Review – here. If you think that world demand for coal is going to grow in the coming decades, then it makes sense to build the 50 new coal mines proposed for Australia. And if you think that the world will continue its shift away from coal, then it

As Sweden debates how best to get out of the coal mining business, Australia is debating how best to subsidise the world’s largest export coal mines. Just last week the Australian Federal Government approved the enormous Adani/Carmichael coal mine which, at 40 kilometres long and 10 kilometres wide, is bigger than Gothenburg. The Australian Government

Originally published in the Australian Financial Review – Here. Like politics, economics often throws up some unusual allies. Take, for example, the recent call for a global moratorium on new coal mines by Kiribati’s President Anote Tong. Were such a restriction on the supply of coal to go ahead the biggest winners would be, you

After decades in public life some Australian corporate leaders are figuring out what first-year philosophy students grasp in their first lecture: it’s hard to define “ethical”. But as Transfield Services’ chairman Diane Smith-Gander has discovered, the stakes are a bit higher than undergrad debating prizes. Losing the debate over the ethics of running offshore detention centres

First published in the Australian Financial Review – here It’s bizarre that people blame Tony Abbott’s demise on his inability to communicate. He was a great communicator, and people knew exactly what he stood for. No politician was as relentlessly ‘on message’.  Abbott’s problem wasn’t the clarity of his message; it was the incoherence of

As opposition leader Tony Abbott told us that emissions trading was an expensive fraud. As Prime Minister he is proposing changes to his direct action policy based on the assumption that trading pollution permits is both cheap and reliable. As with so much of the modern policy debate the explanation for this remarkable turnaround has everything

Australia can’t have a grown-up debate about reform until we stop having juvenile debate about economic modelling. A government that thinks its most persuasive argument begins with “but economic modelling shows” should have as much chance of shifting the economic debate as Bronwyn Bishop had of shifting Australians’ attitudes to the role of helicopters in political

Politics Tony Abbott picks his fights, and loves, on the basis of the enemies he will enrage. This time he’s decided to love coal, but he has also enraged key sections of the National Party. First published in the Australian Financial Review – here. As the coal price continues to fall, the financial case for

First published in The Australian Financial Review, 30 June 2015 – Here The Business Council of Australia once defended free markets, but now it and others only support reforms that help its big business friends. If the Business Council of Australia (BCA) was serious about reducing government waste it would have slammed the recent announcement

While Norway’s decision to divest its $900 billion sovereign wealth fund from coal shares sent shock waves around the financial world, it was the way the Norwegian parliament made the decision that is truly radical. Norway has a conservative minority government, but the idea to sell out of coal started with an NGO, was taken

The mining industry is furious that if you make a donation to an environment group, your donation is tax deductible. You know the drill. You give someone in a koala suit anything over $2, they give you a receipt and go off to save an owl, hug a tree or, more likely, make a submission

While the public are rightly outraged at the callous tone of the Treasurers ‘get a good job’ remarks in response to housing affordability, economists should be equally disturbed about the bizarre logic behind the government’s approach to the issue. Joe Hockey seems to be increasingly confused about what housing affordability is. Hockey and Abbott believe

Tax policy Resources companies and lobby groups are lobbying a parliamentary inquiry to strip political climate groups of their charity status. But resources companies can deduct the money they pay to their industry groups from tax. Speech isn’t free in Australia. It isn’t even cheap. Corporate Australia spends billions telling the public, and our politicians,

A little bit of economic theory is a dangerous thing, and many of the people defending what BHP and Rio Tinto have done to the price of iron ore are demonstrating that they have very little economic knowledge indeed. Economists usually don’t like cartels, or other forms of producer protections, as they help producers and

Joe Hockey’s “do nothing” budget is better than his first “do harm” budget, but he still hasn’t tackled the big issues that face Australia in the wake of the mining boom, writes Australia Institute executive director and economist Richard Denniss. This article was produced for, and originally published by Crikey.com.au – Here. The economy described in

The apparent Coalition aim of cutting taxes does not match its public declarations about reducing the deficit. But tensions within the Coalition make any move on taxes difficult. Does Joe Hockey think removing the deficit levy will make the deficit go away? Announced in last year’s budget, the temporary 2 per cent increase in the

The Earth is flat, climate change is a conspiracy and the only way to collect more money for the states is to collect more money via the GST. How did the nonsensical belief that the GST is the one and only source of commonwealth revenue that can be transferred to the states come to be

The iron ore price is well above its long-term average. Indeed, at $US50 per tonne it is well above the $US36 price that Wayne Swan inherited in 2007. Blaming the iron ore price for Western Australia’s budgetary woes is like blaming the sinking of the Titanic on the iceberg. Yes, it’s a factor and yes,

Imagine this. You’re a State Government minister. Your department and the most powerful industry it regulates are under fire for failing to comply with your government’s own guidelines. Courts, the media and community groups keep complaining that the industry breaks the guidelines and your department lets them get away with it. Even the consultants you

According to the International Monetary Fund, the Howard/Costello government was the most profligate in Australia for the last 50 years. Indeed, while the mining boom was gathering pace they cut taxes so far and so fast that they forced the Reserve Bank of Australia to rapidly increase interest rates. While countries like Norway took the benefits of resource price

Last year Hockey was talking about cutting welfare payments but now, finally, he’s taking about taking on the vested interests in the superannuation industry to bring concessions under control. This time last year Joe Hockey sat on a silk chair telling Spectator Magazine subscribers about the need to cut welfare payments for the poor. Last

Politicians get their fair share of blame for the parlous state of policy making in Australia but they are not the only culprits. The bigger problem is that policy doesn’t get made the way people think it does. It doesn’t get made the way the way academics think it does, it doesn’t get made the

First published in the Australian Financial Review, 24th March 2015 Politics The senate is often describe as obstructionist and causing chaos but it is there for good reasons and governments have to learn to deal with it. Imagine if there was no senate to block Gough Whitlam’s reform agenda. Malcolm Fraser would have had no

While it is not polite to admit it, the plan to reduce the tax paid by wealthy Australians is one of the main reasons that Treasury predicts we will have so much trouble paying for health and aged care in the future. This is all spelt out in the IGR, albeit in the appendices. Last