Few electorates will be clear winners if the Adani coal mine goes ahead, new research from The Australia Institute reveals.

A limited export market means that Galilee Basin coal projects like the Adani coal mine could come at the expense of Bowen and Surat Basin coal projects.

A report released today by The Australia Institute draws on modelling by coal industry analysts which shows that a big expansion of coal exports from the Galilee would have a major impact on coal production from coal mines in the Bowen and Surat basins in southern Queensland.

The Australia Institute analysis highlights which state and federal seats will be adversely affected if the subsidised Adani coal mine goes ahead.

Two Queensland state seats contain Bowen Basin coal projects that would be adversely affected if the Galilee Basin is developed – and they are the seats with Galilee coal projects,” Executive Director of The Australia Institute, Ben Oquist said.

“Callide is the unlucky electorate that contains three threatened Surat Basin coal projects.

The Australia Institute also looked at cities that could host fly-in fly-out workforces following the announcement that Adani will use Townsville and Rockhampton as its fly-in fly-out (FIFO) bases.

“Mackay, Gladstone and Rockhampton host substantial fly-in fly-out workforces for Bowen Basin mines – putting them at risk if Galilee development cannibalises Bowen production.

“Most of the threatened Surat and Bowen coal projects are closer to Rockhampton than the Adani mine is.”

Townsville also hosts an existing FIFO workforce, albeit smaller than the workforces of Mackay, Gladstone and Rockhampton, but some of those existing workers would be threatened by a large new coal mine in the Galilee.

“Seats with something to lose from Adani development include Whitsunday, Burdekin, Mirani and Keppel – all marginal seats,” Oquist said.