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New polling of Dawson, the seat held by George Christensen, conducted by ReachTEL, commissioned by The Australia Institute, shows support for Pauline Hanson’s One Nation party at level pegging with the LNP at 30% of the primary vote.

Issue-based questions in the same poll revealed strong support in Dawson for an increase to the renewable energy target and strong opposition to a company tax cut for big banks.

ReachTEL conducted the survey of 863 residents across the federal electorate of Dawson during the evening of 20th February 2017.

—See results in PDF below—

“One Nations are clearly on the rise, and this polling shows in a seat like Dawson in regional Queensland they could challenge for lower house representation,” Executive Director of The Australia Institute said.

Question: If a federal election were to be held today which of the following would receive your first preference vote?

	Total	Female	Male	18 – 34	35 – 50	51 – 65	65+
Liberal National Party	30.4%	31.8%	29.1%	11.8%	20.8%	25.9%	37.7%
Labor	25.2%	27.4%	22.9%	18.0%	25.5%	21.9%	27.7%
The Greens	2.6%	3.8%	1.4%	6.2%	3.5%	3.1%	1.7%
One Nation	30.0%	26.2%	33.8%	43.5%	33.4%	35.6%	24.3%
Other / Independent	4.5%	2.8%	6.2%	13.1%	8.2%	5.5%	2.1%
Undecided	7.4%	8.0%	6.7%	7.5%	8.7%	8.0%	6.5%

“This polling however also points to a major rift between key Coalition policies and voters in this long-time Coalition seat.”

55% of respondents support a 50% renewable energy target, while only 29% oppose the policy, despite the sustained government-led scare campaign.

Only 9.7% of those polled support a company tax cut for the big banks, and 66% support a Royal Commission into Australian banks and financial institutions.

Only 15% of the electorate support cutting company taxes for large businesses.

Do you support or oppose a renewable energy target so that at least 50% of our national electricity comes from renewable energy sources by 2030?

	Total	Female	Male	18 – 34	35 – 50	51 – 65	65+
Support	54.5%	58.4%	50.6%	73.3%	57.8%	56.1%	51.1%
Oppose	28.8%	21.0%	36.6%	23.6%	27.0%	29.7%	29.2%
Don’t know or not sure	16.7%	20.6%	12.9%	3.1%	15.2%	14.2%	19.8%

“The Coalition will not win back voters with a war on renewables and company tax cuts for the big end of town.

“On the contrary, this polling suggests that these positions could be driving their voters away.

“One Nation support was highest among respondents aged 18-34 at 43.5%. Those younger voters also registered the highest support levels for a 50% renewable energy target.

“Significantly, the poll finds One Nation voters in Dawson support a higher renewable energy target, with 48% of those intending to vote for One Nation wanting half of Australia’s electricity to come from renewable energy sources by 2030 and only 38% of One Nation voters opposing the idea.

“The rise of right-wing populism in Australia is a political earthquake, and the fault-lines are in electorates like Dawson. However this research shows voters will not be one back by attacking renewables or continuing to insist on company tax cuts for the banks,” Oquist said.