The poll, of more than 1000 Farrer voters, also reveals huge support for a 25% tax on gas exports, particularly among One Nation supporters.

9% of voters say they’d vote Labor. When asked who they’d vote for if Labor didn’t field a candidate, 40% say they’d vote for Independent Michelle Milthorpe, ahead of One Nation (5.6%).

Key points:

• Answering the question If this Federal by-election were held today, who would receive your first preference vote? 28.7% said One Nation, 23.3% said Independent Michelle Milthorpe, 19.1% said Liberal, 5.2% said the Nationals and 3.9% said the Greens.
• Of the 8.6% of undecided voters, 28.5% said they had a leaning towards Independent Michelle Milthorpe, 26.1% leaned towards One Nation, 18.2% Liberal, 16.2% Nationals and 11% Greens.
• 77.7% of voters strongly agreed (57.6%) or agreed (20.1%) Australia exports too much gas.
• 75% of voters strongly agreed (48.1%) or agreed (26.9%) with the statement Gas export corporations should pay a flat 25% tax on gas exports.

“The Farrer by-election is shaping up as not just a big test for the Liberals, but for One Nation and the regional Independent movement as well,” said Dr Richard Denniss, co-CEO of The Australia Institute.

“While Farrer is literally the Liberals to lose, if One Nation can’t convert strong polling into parliamentary seats then it will be much harder for them to maintain momentum and voters interest.
“While Cathy McGowan and Helen Haines have made Indi safe terrain for independents, if Michelle Milthorpe can win the neighbouring electorate, then all of the conservative parties will have some hard thinking to do.

“While there are major differences between the political parties contesting the by-election, one issue that unites voters is how strongly they agree that Australia is failing to get a fair share of the revenue from its gas exports, with 48% of voters strongly agreeing that gas exporters should pay a flat 25% tax on their exports and a further 27% agreeing.

“Remarkably, given how divisive Australian politics has become, fewer than 10% of Farrer voters oppose the idea.

“The popularity of taxing gas exports raises a big problem for the Liberals and Nationals. If they aren’t willing to listen to voters and make sure that Australia gets more revenue from gas exports than it does from beer excise, they risk losing even more seats.

“And if they do listen to voters they risk a fight with the multinational gas industry.  Picking a side in such a fight wont be easy for them, but if they keep sitting on the fence it will likely become even more painful.”