Morrison’s Net Zero Modelling Predicts Gillard’s Carbon Price …but without the compensation

New analysis shows that buried in the heart of the modelling for Scott Morrison’s ‘net zero plan’ is a carbon price that drives changes in new business investment, consumer behaviour and technological change.

While the Morrison Government is adamant that it will not collect any revenue from this ‘phantom tax’, it will not protect consumers from higher prices for electricity, petrol, and food.

Analysis shows that unanswered questions on the Morrison Government’s Net Zero modelling include:

  • By how much are household electricity prices expected to increase across the various scenarios?
  • How much are petrol prices expected to rise across the various scenarios?
  • Under The Plan how much are lamb prices expected to increase compared to the ‘No Australian Action’ scenario?
  • What are the impacts on average wages, and the CPI?
  • How many coal mining jobs are expected to be lost in the Hunter Valley across the various scenarios?
  • How does the ‘voluntary’ carbon price change over time? When does it begin, what level does it begin at, and does it rise or fall as 2050 approaches? 
  • Is Australia a net seller or buyer of international carbon permits, how does it change over time, and does it affect national income? Are pollution permits included in the estimate of GDP?

“The Government has said in its modelling that firms will voluntarily pay a carbon price of $24 per tonne. But whether they pay it voluntarily or are compelled to pay it, the impact on consumers will be exactly the same,” said Dr Richard Denniss, chief economist at the Australia Institute.

“While Julia Gillard’s carbon price package provided significant compensation to Australians for the increases in the price of electricity and petrol, Scott Morrison’s plan for net zero provides no details on how, if at all, everyday Australians will be compensated for higher prices.

“Barnaby Joyce once argued Labor’s carbon price would drive the price of a leg of lamb up to $100. But while the modelling for PM Morrison’s plan makes clear that emissions from agriculture will be covered, including methane emissions from cows and sheep, the Morrison Government has provided no information on how farmers — or indeed, consumers — will be compensated for the higher costs of food production that will occur under his plan.”

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