The decision by the International Court of Justice (ICJ) this week, confirming that states have binding legal obligations under international law to prevent climate harm and protect present and future generations, should be a wake-up call for the Australian government. No longer can it argue that Australia’s emissions exported to other nations can be ignored. But new analysis reveals that the extraction of fossil fuels for exports is also making up a growing share of Australia’s domestic emissions.

As the Australian Government prepares to announce a new 2035 climate target under the Paris Agreement, pressure is mounting to show increased ambition. An easy, and often overlooked, place to find real emissions reductions is the domestic footprint of our fossil fuel exports.

Analysis of Australia’s emissions inventory combined with data from the ABS suggests that the process of extracting and shipping all the coal and gas Australia exports is responsible for close to 18% of Australia’s total emissions. That means that if Australia did not export such huge quantities of coal and gas then total emissions in Australia in 2023 could have been 18% lower.

Emissions in Australia from exporting coal and gas have grown rapidly since 2010, doubling its estimated share of total emissions from 7% in 2010. The strong growth was mainly caused by the rapid expansion in LNG exports over the same period, particularly since 2015.

If Australia continues to export record volumes of fossil fuels, then the share of Australia’s total emissions from exporting fossil fuels will likely continue to rise, as domestic sectors like electricity reduce their emissions.

The government frequently claims that emissions from exported coal and gas “don’t count” towards Australia’s target. That’s technically true under international accounting rules, but morally, and materially, it’s misleading – especially in light of the ICJ ruling this week. However, extracting, processing and shipping fossil fuels for export generates significant onshore emissions. And these emissions very much do “count”.

This is an industry that contributes relatively little to the Australian economy, but significantly to our national emissions total. If the government stopped subsidising and expanding coal and gas for export, the economic impact would be minimal — we might even save money. But the reduction in our domestic emissions figure would be significant.