Read the full report: 2018 tax cuts by electorate.

Table of electorates

Methodology

The analysis looks at the average change in disposable household income compared to the average change for the whole of Australia in 2024–25, which is the first year the income tax cuts would be fully implemented. 

While the analysis covers all budget impacts, the tax cut makes up the overwhelming majority of the changes. By way of comparison, the second largest impact on household disposable income is the Pension Work Bonus, which is estimated to cost the budget $230 million over four years. The income tax cuts are estimated to cost the budget $13.4 billion over four years and $144 billion over 10 years. Because the impact of other policy changes are so small in comparison to the tax cuts, for ease of explanation this paper will treat change in disposable income as equivalent to the impact of the tax cuts. 

The analysis was conducted by the National Centre for Social and Economic Modelling – NATSEM’s STINMOD+ Tax/Transfer model and SpatialMSM18 spatial microsimulation model. The models use Australian Bureau of Statistics data including data from the 2016 Census and the 2015-16 Survey of Income and Housing.  

Some electorates are excluded because they fail validation tests: both Northern Territory electorates (Lingiari and Solomon), two large rural electorates in Western Australia (O’Connor and Durack) and the Western Sydney seat of Fowler.  

Failing validation means that households within the seat were sufficiently unusual that NATSEM judged the possible error in results to be too high to produce useful results.