Which electorates benefit from the 2018 income tax cuts?

by Matt Grudnoff

The analysis looks at the average change in disposable household income compared to the average change for the whole of Australia in 2024–25, which is the first year the income tax cuts would be fully implemented.

The biggest winners from the tax cut are wealthy electorates in Sydney and Melbourne. As shown in Table 1, the top 10 electorates all come from these cities. The average household in any of the top 10 electorates would get at least 50% more than the average Australian household.

Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull’s seat of Wentworth will get the largest benefit from the tax cuts. The average increase in disposable income for households in Wentworth is almost twice that of the average household, and more than two and half that of the average household in the lowest-rank electorate.

Liberal electorates dominate, with seven of the top 10 being Liberal electorates and three being Labor.

The analysis was conducted by the National Centre for Social and Economic Modelling – NATSEM’s STINMOD+ Tax/Transfer model and SpatialMSM18 spatial microsimulation model. The models use Australian Bureau of Statistics data including data from the 2016 Census and the 2015-16 Survey of Income and Housing.

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