Research // Tax, Spending & the Budget
-
Economics
- Banking & Finance
- Employment & Unemployment
- Future of Work
- Gender at Work
- Gig Economy
- Industry & Sector Policies
- Inequality
- Infrastructure & Construction
- Insecure & Precarious Work
- Labour Standards & Workers' Rights
- Macroeconomics
- Population & Migration
- Public Sector, Procurement & Privatisation
- Retirement
- Science & Technology
- Social Security & Welfare
- Tax, Spending & the Budget
- Unions & Collective Bargaining
- Wages & Entitlements
- Young Workers
- Climate & Energy
- Democracy & Accountability
- Environment
- International & Security Affairs
- Law, Society & Culture
June 2026
How will Australia pay for AUKUS?
The cost of AUKUS is unknown. The widely-used estimate of $368 billion over 30 years is based on a three-year old, one-page estimate with no working provided. Assuming a cost in the low-tens-of-billions per year, AUKUS could be paid for by raising taxes, such as a $17 billion tax on gas exports, cutting spending, perhaps
Would Tax Indexation Have Made Us Better Off?
Despite excitement among some in the media about the benefits of indexing tax brackets to the rate of inflation, this paper shows Australians have been much better off without indexation. Had indexation of personal income tax thresholds applied over the last 30 years a taxpayer on average weekly earnings would now be $147 a week
May 2026
Time to tax trusts more fairly
Trusts help the wealthy avoid taxes and protect assets from creditors. The use of trusts is growing rapidly in Australia; the number of trusts has almost tripled in the last 30 years. There are now more than 1 million trusts with combined assets of $2.9 trillion and annual income of $601 billion. Revenue equivalent to nearly a quarter of the Australian economy now flows through some form of trust.
Five ongoing facts about gas and tax in Australia
New data in the 2026 Federal Budget and Senate gas tax inquiry further demonstrate that Australia needs a gas export tax. Gas is still given away for free. Petroleum Resource Rent Tax (PRRT) revenue is going down, not up. PRRT raises less money than HECS repayments or beer excise. Japan still raises more tax on Australian gas exports than the Australian Government does, even since the 2023 deduction cap took effect.
Indexation of tax scales: Stimuluses not wanted
The Coalition has announced a policy of indexing the personal income tax scales. If ever implemented tax indexation would pit the government against the Reserve Bank by stimulating the economy when it was inappropriate, which is why the Fraser Government abandoned tax indexation.
April 2026
Wood Mackenzie modelling of gas export taxes
The Wood Mackenzie modelling is mostly irrelevant to the gas industry in Australia. They modelled a gas project that doesn’t exist, a tax proposal no one is asking for, and claimed that it would lead to a country no one would invest in.
Taxing Australia’s gas: It’s time for a fair return
Australia’s gas exporters pay little tax and royalties, employ few people, push up gas and electricity prices for Australian families and businesses, and worsen the climate crisis. If the Albanese government again delays major reform to the taxation of Australia’s gas export industry, these costs to Australian taxpayers will continue to mount. Refusing to tax
March 2026
Polling – Tax concessions for property investors
The Australia Institute commissioned polling on voters’ attitudes towards tax concessions for property investors, like the capital gains tax discount and negative gearing. A national poll was conducted by YouGov, which surveyed 1502 Australians between 12th Mar to 19th Mar 2026, using an online polling methodology. UComms conducted a survey of 1184 voters in the
The arts need funding, not philanthropy
Artists, authors, musicians and other creatives have a huge impact on Australian culture, how Australians see themselves, and how the world sees Australians. Australia’s arts and culture cannot be produced overseas, and cannot be moved offshore. It must be made here.
National and Electorate polls – taxing gas exports
Five news polls conducted for The Australia Institute reveal an overwhelming majority of Australians want a gas export tax to fund improvements in services like health and aged care.
We have already missed out on $63.8 billion in taxes from gas exports
Australia’s wealth of natural gas reserves mean that the Commonwealth could be benefitting from the high prices caused by conflicts in Ukraine and Middle East. If a 25% tax on Australia’s natural gas exports had been enacted in 2022 it would have already raised $63.8 billion, which could fund a range of social services for
Fossil fuel subsidies in Australia 2026
Fossil fuel subsidies cost Australian governments $16.3 billion in 2025–26, an increase of 9.4% on the previous year. This is a larger increase than the 7.6% growth of the National Disability Insurance Scheme. Growth in fossil fuel subsidies is driven by the federal government’s Fuel Tax Credit Scheme, which cost $10.8 billion in 2025–26. Growth
What the Middle East war means for Australians and gas companies
War in the Middle East will likely increase global energy prices. Australian Government choices will determine how hard this price spike hits Australian households, how huge gas export company profits are and how much tax revenue Australia will collect.
Polling – Farrer attitudes on gas exports
UComms conducted a survey of 1,281 members across the Federal Seat of Farrer on behalf of the Australia Institute. Three quarters (77.7%) agreed or strongly agreed that Australia exports too much gas. 75% of voters strongly agreed (48.1%) or agreed (26.9%) with the statement Gas export corporations should pay a flat 25% tax on gas
February 2026
Tax cuts for those who need them
Low-income workers are suffering the most from falling real wages. LITO changes could give them a $2,300 tax cut. This would be fully paid for by a 25% tax on gas exports. Key beneficiaries would be young people and those in regional areas, with National Party electorates benefiting the most.
Tax: Beer drinkers vs gas companies
Do beer drinkers pay more tax than gas companies? Yes, they do! Independent Senator David Pocock recently asked Treasury officials whether beer excise raised more money than a key tax on the gas industry, Australia’s Petroleum Resource Rent Tax (PRRT). A video of the response – that yes, more money comes from beer excise than
Polling – One Nation voters attitudes to gas exports
Redbridge, on behalf of The Australia Institute, surveyed a nationally representative sample of 2,010 Australians about their knowledge of, and opinions on, Australia’s gas exports. One Nation voters are more likely to correctly respond that more than 59% of gas is exported and are among the most supportive of taxing Australian gas exports.
December 2025
Submission to the Select Committee on the Operation of the Capital Gains Tax Discount
The CGT discount has made housing unaffordable, increased inequality, distorted lending, and is reducing investment and productivity. It should be scrapped.
Understanding the December 2025 gas policy scramble
The Albanese Government has acknowledged Australia’s gas export problem. However, rather than implement a tax that would reduce domestic prices, raise revenue and help the climate, the government looks to be weighing options that favour either Santos or its rivals Origin and Shell.
October 2025
Submission – Queensland Energy Roadmap
The Bill should not pass because the Energy Roadmap proposals could increase Queensland’s emissions by 310 million tonnes to 2050, almost a years’ worth of Australia’s national emissions. This increase from the electricity sector will impose abatement costs of perhaps $98 billion on other parts of the economy. Within the Energy Roadmap there is an
Adani royalty discrepancy
Adani sold coal for $100/t through a period that saw relevant coal prices reach $280/t, resulting in apparent royalty underpayments of almost $400 million. The Queensland Government’s decision to abandon its pursuit of these royalties may be linked to regulatory action around Adani’s Abbot Point coal terminal.
September 2025
Funding creativity in NSW – Submission to the NSW Government Art of Tax Reform consultation
State government cultural funding is dependent on federal revenue, yet Australia’s Federal Government raises little tax revenue by international standards. Arts advocates and state leaders should be vocal in urging the Federal Government to raise more revenue. Raising the State’s GST revenue to match economic growth since 2001 could put $76 million per year into
August 2025
A 3-point plan for gas
Soon after his election victory in May 2025, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese spoke of “doing things the Australian way, not looking towards any other method or ideology from overseas”. He summarised this approach as “progressive patriotism”. Progressive patriotism should be urgently applied to gas policy in Australia. Despite being one of the world’s largest exporters
Submission to the Gas Market Review
Australia Institute research has long documented the comprehensive failure of government policies to prioritise the interests of Australians over multinational gas exporters. Our view is that the incremental technocratic policies of successive governments to solve these issues have failed, and that a fresh approach is needed. The ACTU’s proposal for a 25% tax on gas
Three ways Australia can tax wealth better
Australia taxes wealth very lightly. Imposing a 2% wealth tax on those with net assets over $5 million, an inheritance tax on large estates, and scrapping the CGT discount could raise $70 billion per year.
Submission to the Economic Reform Roundtable
Our submission focuses primarily on the role tax reform should play in the productivity agenda. Tax is an essential element of promoting productivity, primarily because: Additional revenue is required to make productivity-enhancing investments in education, health, infrastructure and other sectors of the economy; Existing tax settings allow for (and in some ways facilitate) growing inequality,
Climate and the Economic Reform Roundtable
The upcoming roundtable appears set to ignore climate change and its impact on the economy. Climate change is already driving up the cost-of-living, and this is only likely to get worse. Climate change will substantially harm productivity, particularly if action is not taken to mitigate its extent and adapt to its impacts.
July 2025
Productivity in the Real World
Claims that Australia faces a productivity crisis are overblown. Weak productivity didn’t cause the current problems facing Australian workers (falling real wages, high interest rates, unaffordability of essentials like housing and energy). Nor will higher productivity fix these problems. Faith that higher productivity will automatically trickle down, to be shared by all workers, is unfounded.
Polling – Tasmanian revenue
YouGov conducted a survey of 842 Tasmanian voters on behalf of The Australia Institute between 12 and 16 June 2025, using an online survey polling methodology. These are the results on potential revenue sources for Tasmania. Full details are provided in the methodology statement. The poll is compliant with the Australian Polling Council’s requirements. The
Tasmanian budget: Raising revenue right
The deterioration of the Tasmanian budget means that net debt is expected to reach $10 billion by 2027-28. This paper outlines how the state could increase revenue by auctioning salmon licences, reforming gambling taxes, increasing mineral royalties, and increasing motor vehicle stamp duties and registration fees. If changes to the GST were also made, $11.4