May 2018
Tax and the meaningless law of averages
Based on the way they talk about the proposed income tax cuts, the average Turnbull government MP struggles with the definition of average. To be fair, averages can be a bit confusing. For example, the average Australian has less than two legs (as the number of people with one leg far exceeds the number of people
Federal budget 2018: Good bracket creep v bad bracket creep
Bracket creep is as maligned as it is misunderstood. Indeed, it can even be a good thing. But while most people probably know that bracket creep refers to people getting tipped into higher marginal tax rates as their wages rise, few seem to realise that there is good bracket creep and bad bracket creep. But before I explain
Budget 2018: 23.9 per cent is not the magic answer to the general level of taxes
The answer to the meaning of life is, as we know thanks to Hitchhiker’s Guide to the Galaxy, “42”. What is less well known is that the answer to what Australia’s tax policy should be is also a single, specific and essentially arbitrary numerical figure. [This article was first published in the Australian Financial Review –
April 2018
The Liberals’ immigration plan is working all too well
Peter Dutton’s best argument for Australia to lower its annual immigration intake is one word: Sydney. Australia’s largest city has been made crowded, slow, expensive and unproductive by decades of unplanned immigration. [This article was first published in the Australian Financial Review – here] Anyone planning an event knows that it makes a lot more
Wages Crisis Has Obvious Solutions
Mainstream economists and conservative political leaders profess “surprise” at the historically slow pace of wage growth in Australia’s labour market. They claim that wages will start growing faster soon, in response to the normal “laws of supply and demand.” This view ignores the importance of institutional and regulatory factors in determining wages and income distribution. In fact, given the systematic efforts in recent decades to weaken wage-setting institutions (including minimum wages, the awards system, and collective bargaining), it is no surprise at all that wages have slowed to a crawl. And the solutions to the problem are equally obvious: rebuild the power of those institutions, to support workers in winning a better share of the economic pie they produce.
Company tax cuts are a costly budget buster
In its desperation to cut the company tax rate the Turnbull government is willing to burden future generations with the kind of record budget deficits it has previously sought to pin on the ALP. As an economic strategy it makes little sense but as a political strategy it makes no sense. Indeed the PM seems so keen
March 2018
The Difference Between Trade and ‘Free Trade’
U.S. President Donald Trump’s recent trade policies (including tariffs on steel and aluminium that could affect Australian exports) have raised fears of a worldwide slide into protectionism and trade conflict. Trump’s approach has been widely and legitimately criticised. But his argument that many U.S. workers have been hurt by the operation of current free trade
Australia’s obscene dividend imputation debate about who is poor
All poor people have low taxable incomes, but many people with low taxable incomes are a long way from being poor. [First published in the Australian Financial Review – here] And while the debate about the fairness of abolishing cash refunds for “spare” tax credits has conflated poor people and those with good accountants, the two groups
How some of the wealthiest Australians pay ‘negative’ tax
The tax treatment of earnings generated from owning shares is complicated. Because it is complicated most people think it is boring. Because it’s boring we don’t discuss it much. However Australia’s dividend imputation system is important, unique to the world and comes with approximately a $30 billion dollar a year price tag. So whatever you
February 2018
Response to ‘How company tax cuts got killed’ in The Australian Financial Review
On Friday 16 February the Australian Financial Review published an opinion piece on company tax and argued that The Australia Institute ‘undermined a policy that woud have created jobs, profits and a bigger economy’. Generally this is a good article which sets out how The Australia Institute undermined the Government’s plan to cut company taxes,
Australians don’t hate big business, but they do hate the tax cut campaign
I’m proud that The Australian Financial Review thinks that my colleague Ben Oquist and I ran a “well-orchestrated thought campaign” against the BCA’s call for a $65 billion tax cut, but, to be honest, defeating it in that debate wasn’t difficult. [First published by the Australian Financial Review – here] Indeed, while Aaron Patrick’s piece titled “How company tax
The Coalition of free-market freeloaders
The word “ideology” has a bad name these days but, as we are beginning to see, it is surprisingly hard to govern a country without one. Take, for example, the ideology of small government often associated with conservative governments like that of Mr Turnbull’s. [First published by the Australian Financial Review – here] Last week
January 2018
Energy policy based on feelings doesn’t help consumers
Just as many politicians choose to ignore the evidence of criminologists when designing crime prevention policy, the majority of Australian politicians choose to ignore economic evidence in the design of Australian energy policy. That’s OK. There’s no mention of role of evidence in the Australian Constitution and there’s no obligation on parliamentarians to base policy
November 2017
Job Growth No Guarantee of Wage Growth
Measured by official employment statistics, Australia’s labour market has improved in recent months: full-time employment has grown, and the official unemployment rate has fallen. But dig a little deeper, and the continuing structural weakness of the job market is more apparent. In particular, labour incomes remain unusually stagnant. In this commentary, Centre for Future Work Associate Dr. Anis Chowdhry reflects on the factors explaining slow wage growth — and what’s required to get wages growing.
October 2017
Submarines or rape counselling? Priorities are the measure of any government
Is the purpose of being in government primarily to keep the opposition from doing it? The Coalition is now in its fifth year in power, yet it spends more time blaming Labor for the country’s problems than spelling out its own plans to improve Australians’ lives. [This article was first published by The Canberra Times
Gas prices shine light on mining subsidies
The Australian gas industry’s best hope is the Turnbull government’s worst nightmare; a big increase in world prices for oil and gas. Santos and Origin executives lost billions of their shareholder’s dollars when they bet $60 billion worth of gas export facilities in Gladstone on a world oil price of around $US100. They lost. The
September 2017
Malcolm Turnbull has simply become the man with a plan for more plans
Given the enormous investment in renewable energy taking place in the US and in Europe, other national governments must be determined to drive up the price of their electricity. [First published by the Australian Financial Review – here] Either that, or everything Malcolm Turnbull has been saying about the need to keep a 50-year-old power station going
The BCA is pushing policy irrelevance and being ignored by the parties
When the Prime Minister is forced to spend his own political capital fixing the mistakes of the former head of Origin Energy, is it any wonder the Coalition is ignoring that same man’s policy advice now that he heads up the Business Council of Australia? [This op ed was first published in the Australian Financial Review
July 2017
Out of Energy
This opinion piece was first published in the Canberra Times on 29 July 2017. The final season of Game of Thrones is back and winter is coming for House Turnbull. The failure of the federal government on energy policy is driving up emissions, driving up energy prices, stalling investment and its harming consumers. And hasn’t
Trusts a burden on the rest of us
Rising inequality is, according to the lefties at the International Monetary Fund, a drag on economic growth. And low wages growth is, according to the lefties at the RBA, a drag on growth. And according to lefties like Theresa May fixing economic equality is “crucial” to the economy. [This article was first published by the
June 2017
RBA board needs an ACTU representative to help keep wages up
The RBA governor Philip Lowe recently encouraged Australian workers to stop being so scared of technological change and foreign competition and start demanding higher wages. But if the governor wants to really understand why so many Australians have been willing to settle for so little for so long perhaps he should ask the Treasurer to appoint the ACTU
May 2017
Tasmanian Budget: Smiles all around, but no long-term vision for the future
This week’s budget was full of good news about good economic times. The combination of favourable economic conditions and some good economic management could have been a once in a generation opportunity to build for the state’s future. Built on the back of our clean and green image, a boom in revenues has been fuelled
Palaszczuk and Turnbull governments are Adani mine’s lonely fans
Australia isn’t trying to stop global warming, we’re subsidising it. While here in the ACT we’re on track to source 100% of our electricity from renewable energy by 2020, in Queensland the state government is doubling down on the number one contributor to climate change – coal. Despite banks, economists and the Australian people showing
Budget 2017: Banks and miners can just pay up
The big banks have just discovered what Australia’s unemployed have known for some time, in modern Australia it is risky to be the underdog. For the last decade, at least, Australian politics has revolved around what you can get away with, not what the country needs, and the results have been nasty. And as the
April 2017
Coalition should be rejecting populist subsidies for Adani’s rail line
Barnaby Joyce says the federal Coalition’s desire to subsidise Adani’s Carmichael coal mine means the government will attract “some flak” from environmentalists. No doubt there will be, but he might do well to prepare for some friendly fire as well. [This article was first published in the Australian Financial Review – here] The government should expect some flak
Why big business doesn’t care about deficits
Two days after demanding $48 billion worth of tax cuts, BCA president Grant King warned us that “if we don’t make changes, if we don’t get on top of the budget deficit, debt is going to be rising and it will be a burden for generations to come”. [This article was first published by the Australian Financial
March 2017
Don’t Pop Champagne Corks Over Longest Growth Streak
On April 1, Australia will surpass the Netherland’s old record to mark the longest unbroken expansion of real GDP in modern history. While this result permits much chest-thumping on the part of some politicians, we should never assume that there is an automatic correlation between GDP growth and the well-being of people, society, and the environment.
How to invent a clean energy company
This was first published in EcoGeneration online on 8 March 2017 and in the print edition. The common view of invention is that it is unexpected. The people who do it are extraordinary individuals. There are risk takers but also naturally creative geniuses. Ancient Archimedes came up with his theory of buoyancy by his spontaneous
Where did all the rationalists go?
Are there any economic rationalists left in the Australian business community? Where are the fiscal conservatives when you need them? [This article was first published in the Australian Financial Review – here] Hard headed budget hawks are missing in action when it comes to our governments giving a $1 billion subsidy to help build the
Debt phobia is doing long-term harm
The Coalition Government is still paying a heavy price for Tony Abbott’s “ability” to simplify complex policy issues down into three-word slogans. His promise to “stop the debt” worked a treat for him in opposition but it made him look a failure as Prime Minister when debt grew rapidly on his watch. [This article was
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