As the world coal price continues to fall, politicians are asking themselves what the Australian economy will look like by the time the downturn bottoms out.They needn’t look far.Tasmania offers a clear road map for what happens to an economy when the price of a significant export commodity falls.And, most recently, with news the Tasmanian

The Abbott government has proposed a “one stop shop” approach to environmental protection to reduce so-called “green tape” and speed planning. The Commonwealth will no longer have oversight for a wide range of developments and it will be left to state governments to consider the national benefit. No one complains about duplication when it comes

In a democracy, power is the ability to talk crap and get and away with it. And nobody talks more crap than coal companies.  The public think that mining employs far more people than it really does, pays far more tax than it really does, and that it kept Australia out of recession during the

Facts are so last century. The secretary of the NSW Treasury thinks we have a shortage of electricity and we are in danger of an electricity price explosion. The Commonwealth Minister for Industry, Ian Macfarlane, on the other hand, believes we have an “oversupply” of electricity generation capacity, and that electricity prices are unsustainably low.

Economics and politics don’t really have much in common. While it is the job of politicians to decide what is fair and what is not, students are taught in economics 101 that economics is not concerned with fairness and distribution. The main job of economists is to help grow the pie, and the main job

For American presidents, the ‘State of the Union’ address provides a once in a year opportunity to set out a plan for the direction the country needs to take and the policies required to get it there. The closest Australian governments get is the annual budget speech, and that is provided by the treasurer, not

Many may have bemoaned the dominance of “economic rationalists”, but I’m beginning to miss them. Sure, they often used simplistic and narrow assumptions to justify a wide range of bad ideas but, compared to the economic irrationalists dominating today’s policy debates, at least they were willing to have a fight with vested interests. The economic

The hypocrisy of Joe Hockey’s call for big business to make the case for his economic reforms is breathtaking. His government’s signature economic ”reform” was to rip up a perfectly good carbon tax. The Prime Minister and Treasurer rightly bet that business groups would sit silently by while this populist policy destruction took place. But

Tony Abbott’s problems with the Senate are only just beginning. The black eye the Palmer United Party gave him on his carbon and mining tax repeal is nothing compared to the body blow he will receive when the major policy initiatives announced in the budget, initiatives that weren’t mentioned during the election campaign, hit the

Economic modelling is like The Wizard of Oz. Behind a impressive facade of power and omnipotence lies an underwhelming array of bizarre assumptions, confused theory, inadequate data, and a desire to please the customer. Economic modelling, it seems, is loved by everyone. Lobbyists and industry groups love it as it allows them to dress up

Tony Abbott came to office promising to restore confidence to the economy and to deliver business certainty. But while he hasn’t wavered in his determination to repeal the carbon price, his equivocation on his election promise to maintain the Renewable Energy Target (RET) is delaying investment, driving up electricity prices and causing the kind of

The Liberals will tell you that they don’t like telling people how to live their lives. Indeed they regularly tell us that individuals, not governments, are best placed to make decisions about what is in their own best interest. But, like successive ALP and Coalition governments, Tony Abbott and his team are big fans for

Just as introducing the carbon tax didn’t really drive the cost of a leg of lamb to $100, removing it isn’t really going to have any noticeable impact on the cost of living. Supermarkets are adamant they didn’t increase prices when the carbon price came in, and they are just as adamant they won’t cut

It’s much easier to solve imaginary problems than real ones, which explains why the current Government is highly concerned about low levels of debt, and relaxed about high levels of greenhouse gas emissions. Since 1950 our national debt has fallen from 100 per cent to 14 per cent of GDP. Our greenhouse gas emissions have

The day after Clive Palmer announced he would oppose the Abbott government’s efforts to abolish the 20 per cent renewable energy target, the price of market-traded renewable energy certificates jumped 27 per cent. The same day shares in Infigen, a company with a big portfolio of renewable energy generation, jumped 16 per cent. The next day, as the

Charging sick people $7 to go to the doctor will hurt ordinary Australians far more than the carbon price ever did. While, admittedly, the ALP did a poor job of explaining it, the reality was that most Australians received more in compensation than they paid in higher electricity prices. Of course there is no compensation

Australia has one of the lowest levels of energy productivity in the developed world. We use more energy to make a dollar’s worth of gross domestic product than the countries we typically compare ourselves to. But while labour productivity, multi-factor productivity and the productivity of our ports elicit interest from our political and business leaders,

MAKE no mistake, if a gas field is approved over the Surf Coast Shire it will industrialise the region. The economics of unconventional gas are pretty simple; once approval for a commercial gas field is granted, the company needs to extract as much gas as possible to maximise its return on investment. That typically means

Politicians love children, or at least they do a pretty good job of pretending to. But while there is political consensus around the niceness of children, no such agreement exists about what children really need. Compare the priorities of Barak Obama and Joe Hockey. In one corner we have the President of the United States,

Usually political staffers are not seen and not heard. This week a striking exception was made when Clive Palmer brought attention to the Prime Minister’s chief of staff’s potential qualification for his paid parental leave scheme, and then called her the “top dog”. Outrage ensued, as it became better known that Credlin – perhaps the

There is a disparity between politicians’ love of symbolism and shareholders’ love of results. Unfortunately for Prime Minister Tony Abbott, that disparity seems set to distance his government even further from the agenda of the mainstream business community in Australia. As if proposing to introduce a new levy on corporate profits and increasing the top

If Joe Hockey was actually determined to broaden the base of the GST he wouldn’t start by including food, he would start by imposing it on private school fees and private health insurance. Not only would he collect billions in revenue, he would raise it primarily from high-income earners. While the poorest Australians spend a

If Paul Keating’s pet shop galahs are still alive I suspect they are talking about tax reform these days. And no doubt all right-thinking galahs know that tax reform and increasing the GST is one and the same thing. The Commonwealth government will collect $363 billion in taxes this year, with state and local governments

The Government says our education system, our health care, our pensions and our social safety net are unsustainable. The big question I have is why? Every prime minister since Whitlam has managed to maintain the principles of universal health care and education. They have managed to maintain help to our elderly and less fortunate. Why

To paraphrase Winston Churchill — never in the field of budget conflict has so much been extracted by so few at the expense of so many. While the rest of us face a horror budget where we are told to keep calm and carry on, the miners are walking away puffing a cigar and doing the

Last night’s federal budget is more of a discussion starter than the final word when it comes to policy change in this term of government. Given the numbers in the Senate, the list of “new commitments” announced by Treasurer Joe Hockey are best interpreted as a wish-list rather than the likely end result.

Treasurer Joe Hockey expects unemployment to rise and business investment to fall. He plans to shed 16,000 public sector jobs into a labour market that Treasury says is softening. Indeed, Treasury states that the proportion of people who are employed or looking for work will continue to fall, “reflecting the expectation that employment growth will

John Howard is the Ronald Reagan of Australian politics. While Reagan is deified by modern Republicans for his fiscal conservatism, in reality he oversaw big increases in government spending. But because he took from the poor to deliver to the rich they love him all the same. 

Economics textbooks have a pretty depressing story to tell aspiring business owners. It can be summarised as, “Don’t bother. You will never make any money and even if you do, your success will attract new competitors who will push your price and profits down.” But don’t worry, no one pays economists for the accuracy of

Despite the skill of individual musicians, orchestras still need a conductor to bring the whole performance together. It is one thing to know how to play the horn, but someone needs to decide when the best time to honk it is. This week the Abbott government sounded like an orchestra without a conductor – there