February 2017
The fossil fuel industry and its alternative facts
In a post-truth world, the ability of an industry to generate its own “alternative facts” is likely to be an asset in the short term and a liability in the long term. Indeed, for those who crave certainty and value continuous disclosure, the willingness of some firms to move well beyond simply putting a positive spin on
When did Donald Trump become Malcolm Turnbull’s celebrity tax adviser
Malcolm Turnbull is using Donald Trump as a celebrity endorsement for his plan to give corporate Australia a $50 billion tax cut. But, like all dealings with people who are famous for being famous, the risks can be greater than the returns. Take Trump’s views on free trade. First published by the Australian Financial Review
January 2017
Billionaires get more leeway than vulnerable citizens. It’s obscene
When politicians spend taxpayers money flying themselves to fundraising parties or flying to their own weddings, we leave it up to the politician to decide if their claim is “outside of entitlement”. First published on The Guardian – here When it comes to income tax we allow people to claim $300 worth of tax deductions without receipts because
Expenses scandal shows need for national anti-corruption body
Is it any wonder that voters who don’t believe politicians’ travel expense claims are fair dinkum won’t believe their claims about the benefits of economic reform either? Trust is hard to earn and easy to lose. —First published by the Australian Financial Review here— While much has been made of “the optics” of the government
December 2016
SUMMER SPECIAL Econobabble
Welcome to our second Follow The Money summer special! If you’re taking a break this summer, but still craving a political fix – we are here to help. Over the summer we’ll bring you the highlights from The Australia Institute’s popular Politics in the Pub live sessions from 2016. In this episode you’ll hear a discussion from
The notion of evidence-based policy in Australia is dead
The notion of evidence-based policy in Australia is dead. While it’s been in poor health for some time, it was finally killed by the Coalition backbench last week and replaced with “gut instinct” and “the pub test”. First published by the Australian Financial Review – here When Deputy Prime Minister Barnaby Joyce was recently quizzed
Pocket Money: The Adani Coal Mine
In a special mini-episode we’ve dubbed “Pocket Money” we take a look at the recent developments with Adani’s Carmichael coal mine in Queensland’s Galilee Basin. It’s a straight discussion, without our usual bells and whistles so that we could respond quickly and if you like it, we’ll probably do more of these Pocket Money episodes
November 2016
Do we want house prices up or down?
Just as market forces were about to push the price of housing down in Australia, the Treasurer stepped in with some new regulation. Phew. Some first home buyer’s nearly snatched a good deal, but luckily the Treasurer was there to protect the property developers from the oversupply their building bonanza created. [First pubished by the
Nuclear Dumps
How much is a hole in the ground worth? Australia has considered building a nuclear waste dump many times over the decades. Each time, the proposal has fallen through. This time, in South Australia, proponents are making $100 billion dollar claims. Richard and Rod take a look at those claims and the economics of building
Interest always trumps ideology
In the modern version of “the battle of ideas” political interests trump political ideology nearly every time. Take, for example, the alleged supporters of “small government” who have been strategically silent as the Australian resource industry pushed for a $100 billion, wholly government owned, nuclear waste dump in South Australia. First published by the Australian Financial Review
Some jobs are more equal than others
When Tony Abbott promised to shed more than 13,000 full time jobs from the public service there was a deafening silence from the Australian business community about the impact of job loss on Canberra communities and families. Likewise, you could hear crickets when Campbell Newman sacked 10,000 teachers, nurses and other Queensland public servants.
Economic Models
Economic models are like a lot of things in life: What you get out of them depends on what you put in. But therein lies the problem. When reporting focuses on the ‘findings’ without looking at what assumptions underpin politically influential economic models, it leaves us vulnerable to what Richard calls the ‘peak-stupid of econobabble’.
October 2016
Renewable Energy Culture Wars
Now that the tram war has finally been won, it is probably time to get back to arguing about renewable energy again. Regardless of whether the Canberra Liberals stick with their new-found support for the ACT’s 100 per cent renewables target or not, the hard right in the Federal Coalition has already made it clear
Interest Rates
Interest rates may be one of the most discussed and least understood area of economics in Australia. Our Chief Economist and Senior Economist discuss the whats and whys of Reserve Bank policy and how interest rates really effect people and the broader economy. Contributors: Richard Denniss – @RDNS_TAI Matt Grudnoff – @MattGrudnoff Ebony Bennett – @ebony_bennett. Produced by
New taxes are not political death
The ACT election result is further proof that Australian conservatives have a tin ear. Either that, or because they spend so much time telling voters scary stories about taxes and public debt that there is simply no time to listen to what the voters are really want. First published by the Australian Financial Review –
The Liberals own climate wars
Does the Prime Minister think ACT energy policy is visionary or vapid? First published in the Australian Financial Review – here Australian policy debate is like a drunken mob looking for a spilt pint to fight over. Even before South Australia’s lights came back on the culture warriors were out blaming wind turbines for causing
September 2016
No New Coal Mines
Can Australia live without coal? Episode 7 of Follow the Money looks at the economics of coal and how a moratorium on new mines would help stop the boom and inevitable bust cycle, and instead create a smooth transition to a low carbon future. Contributors: Richard Denniss – @RDNS_TAI Rod Campbell – @R_o_d_C Ebony Bennett – @ebony_bennett. Produced by
Barnett and Costello: how to waste a boom
Successful investors let their winning bets run while quickly cutting their losses. But while the strategy of “spreading your bets” and “failing fast” might work for venture capitalists, it doesn’t work well for prime ministers. A chief executive that shuts down an underperforming factory is decisive; a PM who abandons Tasmania or regional Western Australia is divisive.
Theoretical purity from Climate Authority dissenters stymies climate action
First published in the Australian Financial Review – here. For the past decade the 10 per cent of the business community that profits from causing climate change has made 90 per cent of the noise about the dangers of introducing effective climate policy. But now, as the market cap of the mining sector has withered
August 2016
Outsourcing census and other disasters
The ultimate irony of neoliberalism is that the buck no longer stops. It just keeps going and going. The company at the heart of #censusfail, IBM, was once paid more than $1 billion to deliver what started out as a $6 million contract to upgrade the Queensland Health Department’s payroll system. For decades we have
Turnbull government cuts policy principles along with welfare
First published in the Australian Financial Review – Here The first order of business for the Turnbull government when Parliament returns next week is to cut the dole for new recipients from $263.80 to $259.40 per week. That is less than the tax free allowance politicians receive for each night they spend in Canberra. It
Welfare cuts: a hand up will beat trickle down
If Arrium Steel closes in Whyalla around 8000 people in a town of 22,000 will be looking for work. On average, of every 100 Australians who lose their jobs 30 will still be looking for a new one 12 months later. Unfortunately, the average is much higher when job losses are concentrated in a particular
July 2016
Facts are no fun for anti-wind campaigners
The folk who predicted the carbon price would give us $100 legs of lamb, that China’s demand for coal would keep rising, and that NSW would run out gas are at it again. Wind energy, we are now told, is ruining the economy. Run for the hills! (First published in the Australian Financial Review – Here)
Election 2016: Why the BCA doesn’t deserve public influence
The Business Council of Australia and the Liberal party just lost a debate with Bill Shorten about the economy. Badly. The days where expensive suits and even more expensive modelling were enough to win a public debate about “what the economy needs” are over. The days where newspaper editors could shift votes are over. The days where governments can deliver unpopular
June 2016
Why the IPA and Libs like Brexit
Britain will now decide which Germans can invest in, or travel to, the UK and the circumstances in which they can do so. The Brexit decision provides clear evidence of the tension within conservative politics between strident nationalism and economic rationalism. And as the business community is discovering, there are enormous economic risks when conservatives
Minimum wagers won’t get a trickle-down treat from company tax cuts
It is hard for the benefits of a company tax cut to “trickle down” to workers when employer groups insist on building dams to capture the gains for themselves, writes Richard Denniss. First published on The Drum – here. The Turnbull Government’s claim that a company tax cut will trickle down to benefit workers rests
The public shouldn’t trust business groups like the BCA
It is hard to claim a mandate for something you barely mention, but just as the Turnbull government has stopped talking about the Australian Building and Construction Commission, the business community has now made a TV advertisement for the company tax cuts that, wait for it, doesn’t mention the company tax cuts. It wasn’t meant to be
May 2016
Company tax cuts do not add up to growth
After three long weeks of election campaigning neither the Prime Minister nor the Treasurer has explained how the $48 billion centrepiece of their “economic plan” will be funded. Sure, they love being asked about it, as such questions allow them to say “jobs and growth” a lot. But the actual answer is yet to pass their
Coalition’s company tax cuts claims ignore trade treaties and imputation
The centrepiece of the Turnbull government’s ‘plan’ for the economy, and its plan to win the upcoming election, is based on some heroic assumptions. There is no strong evidence to support the government’s claim that cutting the company tax rate will boost “jobs and growth”. And there is no strong evidence that the public will
The Pea & Thimble Trick
In episode 6, we tackle the perennial favourite of politicians in an election year – income tax cuts. Do personal income tax cuts really lead to economic growth and job creation? Does more money in the wallet increase incentives and make people work harder? We put those claims to the test. Contributors: Richard Denniss – @RDNS_TAI
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