May 2024
Calls for massive rate hikes and recession are cavalier: Jericho
Inflation will remain higher for longer, but a recession is not the solution, says Greg Jericho.
“Sticky” inflation does not mean more rate rises are needed
The majority of items driving inflation now are not responsive to further rate rises
.We. Do. Not. Need. A. Recession.
Calling for a ‘short recession’ as an economist is like calling for a ‘small war’ knowing you’ll never be on the frontlines, says Greg Jericho.
Those calling for higher interest rates in Australia should be careful of what they wish for
It seems that some people really want a recession.
Increasing JobSeeker is possible, it’s just a question of priorities
The government has the power to make significant and long-awaited improvements to the JobSeeker scheme in this federal budget, but it has to make it a priority, says Greg Jericho.
JobSeeker drags people into poverty, but the government could fix this today
Budgets are about choices – and successive governments have chosen to punish jobseekers, says Greg Jericho.
Poverty is a policy choice – it is time for the government to choose better
If the government decided to make raising Jobseeker a priority in the Budget it would not talk about not being able to afford it, writes Greg Jericho.
.April 2024
The government shouldn’t boast about Australia’s latest CPI figures, but it shouldn’t panic either
Despite what the fearmongers would have you believe, the latest inflation figures showed that inflation remains well under control.
People are starting with much larger HECS/HELP debts than in the past – and it is only going to get worse
Australians in their 20s have HECS/HELP debts more than $10,000 greater in real terms than did people 20 years ago
HECS/HELP indexation is sending those earning less than $65,000 backwards
Ending the indexation of HECS/HELP debts would deliver a truly interest free-loan for students
.Wages growth in enterprise agreements provides no reasons for worry about inflation
Wage growth in enterprise agreements is at a level completely compatible with long-term inflation targets
Backing the renewable horse
The government is under fire for trying to ‘pick winners’, but green manufacturing could be the pony to get behind, says Greg Jericho.
Funding Australia’s renewable transition isn’t ‘picking winners’ – it’s securing our future
Last week Anthony Albanese finally announced the government’s major plan for the transition to a renewable energy economy.
Investing in a renewable manufacturing industry is vital for Australia’s living standards (and climate)
Australia’s economy is less an advanced economy than it is a petrostate style simple economy. That needs to change
The market expects rates to fall – but that may be optimistic
Greg Jericho discusses the decisions facing the Reserve Bank in coming months and a new report showing that rate rises hurt Australians more than anyone in the world.
Who’s hurting most from rising interest rates? It’s probably you.
Soaring house prices, high household debt and the pervasiveness of variable rate home loans mean that Australians bear the brunt of interest rate rises, says Greg Jericho.
Talk of interest rate cuts soon is optimistic – here’s why the RBA may decide doing nothing is safer
Australians are hurting from rate rises more than anyone. But that doesn’t mean the Reserve Bank is about to start cutting.
Australia’s “stupid” surplus obsession must end
A budget surplus doesn’t mean a government is good at running the economy – we should focus on the choices they make instead, says Greg Jericho.
The big budget con
The budget balance usually steals the headlines on budget night, but it’s not that important, says Greg Jericho.
Whether Australia’s budget has a surplus tells us little about the government’s worth – it’s all on the choices made
We are now a month away from the 2024-25 budget. And as with all budgets, the choices made matter much more than any big numbers that get the media attention.
Don’t worry about a budget surplus, care about the choices in the budget
Budget, Julia Gillard rightly said, are about choices. And those choices are a lot more important than whether or not the budget is in surplus or deficit
“It’s a scare campaign”: award wage rise won’t trigger inflation spiral
With unions calling for a five per cent increase to award wages, business groups are crying wolf over the proposal’s impact on inflation and unemployment, says Greg Jericho.
March 2024
Waiting for Godot (and wage-price spirals)
Despite claims by some business groups and commentators, a modest wage increase for workers isn’t going to send inflation skyrocketing, says Greg Jericho.
Wage growth in private-sector enterprise agreements falls in the last quarter of 2023
The latest figures reveal that wages in the private-sector are not growing out of control – indeed they appear to have peaked.
The RBA should keep its finger off the interest rate trigger
With unemployment tumbling in February, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) should resist the urge to raise interest rates, says Australia Institute Chief Economist Greg Jericho.
Too good to be true? Employment spike exceeds expectations
Unemployment dropped in a big way in February, so is the Australian economy now out of the woods?
Tasmania’s fear of government debt is hurting the state
Tasmanians have been badly served by its government’s exaggerated fears about the condition of the state budget.
Housing is so bad that 2020 prices look good…
Housing prices have risen so much in Australia that 2020 prices look almost reasonable.
Housing affordability is so bad that 2020 (!) now looks good
House prices after a brief fall in 2022 rose consistently during 2023 and housing affordability is now as bad as ever
GDPitiful
Australia’s recent gross domestic product (GDP) figures show that the economy is weak and people are struggling to keep up. So what can the federal government – and the Reserve Bank – do to help? Greg Jericho is Chief Economist at the Australia Institute and the Centre for Future Work and popular columnist of Grogonomics
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