Research

May 2026

Shane Rattenbury’s record run

by Bill Browne and Skye Predavec

Shane Rattenbury is stepping down as Member of the Legislative Assembly of the ACT, after 18 years in office. For the entire duration, the ACT Greens have been in sole balance of power in the Legislative Assembly – that is to say, they have been the only bloc that decides which party forms government. From

Polling – Australia, the US and Iran War

The Australia Institute commissioned polling on voters’ attitudes towards on attitudes towards the relationship with the United States, Trump and the Iran war. A national poll was conducted by YouGov, which surveyed 1502 Australians between 12th Mar to 19th Mar 2026, using an online polling methodology.

April 2026

Second-class citizens — The rural health divide

by Hamdi Jama, Jack Thrower and Morgan Harrington

Australians living in non-urban areas are dying younger, often from preventable diseases. These deaths could be avoided if these communities had access to timely and affordable healthcare. With access to care, including primary, specialist, and allied health services, diseases can be diagnosed, managed, and even prevented.

Polling – gas tax and WA

uComms conducted a survey of 1,906 members across the Nation on behalf of The Australia Institute during the evening of 27th April 2026 using a self-completed and open-ended automated SMS and voice polling methodology.

No new gas and coal

Since signing the Paris Agreement in 2015, Australia’s fossil gas exports have doubled, and coal exports have increased significantly. Large exporters of fossil fuels, like Australia, avoid scrutiny of their inaction on climate by emphasising domestic emissions and avoiding discussion on fossil fuel production. The Santa Marta Conference on Transitioning Away from Fossil Fuels offers

Polling – rights for PALM scheme workers

The Australia Institute commissioned polling on voters’ attitudes towards rights for people employed in Australia as part of the PALM visa scheme, including the right to change employer. A national poll was conducted by YouGov, which surveyed 1502 Australians between 12th Mar to 19th Mar 2026, using an online polling methodology.

Taxing gas in Australia and Japan

by Richard Denniss, Rod Campbell and Matt Saunders

Japan taxes energy imports through its Petroleum and Coal Tax, which raises AUD $8 billion per year on average. Of this $8 billion, around $1.8 billion comes from taxing gas imports into Japan. This is more than the $1.4 billion per year that Australia’s Petroleum Resource Rent Tax (PRRT) raises in total. Japan raises $710

Taxing Australia’s gas: It’s time for a fair return

Australia’s gas exporters pay little tax and royalties, employ few people, push up gas and electricity prices for Australian families and businesses, and worsen the climate crisis. If the Albanese government again delays major reform to the taxation of Australia’s gas export industry, these costs to Australian taxpayers will continue to mount. Refusing to tax

The case for an expanded parliament

by Bill Browne and Skye Predavec

Few Australians have interacted with their representative or would feel comfortable doing so, and the numbers have become worse over the last decade as the number of people per MP increased. More MPs would increase the talent pool for ministries, reverse the growth in physical size of rural and regional electorates, and make MPs more

March 2026

Polling – Tax concessions for property investors

The Australia Institute commissioned polling on voters’ attitudes towards tax concessions for property investors, like the capital gains tax discount and negative gearing. A national poll was conducted by YouGov, which surveyed 1502 Australians between 12th Mar to 19th Mar 2026, using an online polling methodology. UComms conducted a survey of 1184 voters in the

Inflation remains unaffected by Minimum Wages

by Greg Jericho

Updated analysis by the Australia Institute reveals that a fair and appropriate increase to the minimum wage, and accompanying increases to award rates, would not have a significant effect on inflation. The analysis examines the correlation between minimum wage increases and inflation going back 30 years, and finds no consistent link between minimum wage increases

The arts need funding, not philanthropy

by Skye Predavec and Alice Grundy

Artists, authors, musicians and other creatives have a huge impact on Australian culture, how Australians see themselves, and how the world sees Australians. Australia’s arts and culture cannot be produced overseas, and cannot be moved offshore. It must be made here. 

The hole in Australia’s gun laws

by Skye Predavec, Rod Campbell and Alice Grundy

To get a firearm licence in Australia requires having a “genuine reason” to own a gun. In most jurisdictions, this requirement can be satisfied by being a paid-up member of a sports shooting club. Shooting groups promote this fact, advertising that you can join “from the comfort of home”. This may explain why up to 253,000 NSW firearms licences list shooting sports or recreational hunting as a reason for gun ownership, but fewer than 36,000 people in NSW participated in either activity in 2025.

Polling – Abortion

Redbridge, on behalf of The Australia Institute, surveyed a nationally representative sample of 2,010 Australians about their knowledge of, and opinions on, abortion. The results show that the majority (62%) of Australians support access to abortion. Across voting intentions, a majority of respondents support access to abortion.

Fossil fuel subsidies in Australia 2026

by Matt Grudnoff and Rod Campbell

Fossil fuel subsidies cost Australian governments $16.3 billion in 2025–26, an increase of 9.4% on the previous year. This is a larger increase than the 7.6% growth of the National Disability Insurance Scheme. Growth in fossil fuel subsidies is driven by the federal government’s Fuel Tax Credit Scheme, which cost $10.8 billion in 2025–26. Growth

Polling – Farrer attitudes on gas exports

UComms conducted a survey of 1,281 members across the Federal Seat of Farrer on behalf of the Australia Institute. Three quarters (77.7%) agreed or strongly agreed that Australia exports too much gas. 75% of voters strongly agreed (48.1%) or agreed (26.9%) with the statement Gas export corporations should pay a flat 25% tax on gas

February 2026

The real causes of slower productivity growth

by Richard Denniss and David Richardson

Australia’s productivity debate focuses on cutting taxes and undermining workers, while ignoring the negative productivity impacts of climate change, defence spending and privatisation. Meanwhile, productivity growth has continued to fall. Refocusing the debate and taking lessons from successful high-productivity, egalitarian countries will help boost Australian productivity.

Tax cuts for those who need them

by Matt Grudnoff and Richard Denniss

Low-income workers are suffering the most from falling real wages. LITO changes could give them a $2,300 tax cut. This would be fully paid for by a 25% tax on gas exports. Key beneficiaries would be young people and those in regional areas, with National Party electorates benefiting the most.

Wages are not to blame for rising inflation

by David Richardson, Greg Jericho and Matt Saunders

Inflation is rising again and, unfortunately, so are interest rates. The Reserve Bank of Australia’s recent decision to raise the cash rate from 3.6% to 3.85% involves a misreading of the factors driving inflation. Analysis of wage, inflation and productivity data during 2025 and RBA’s own forecasts for 2026 and beyond reveals that rising wages

Tax: Beer drinkers vs gas companies

by Rod Campbell

Do beer drinkers pay more tax than gas companies? Yes, they do! Independent Senator David Pocock recently asked Treasury officials whether beer excise raised more money than a key tax on the gas industry, Australia’s Petroleum Resource Rent Tax (PRRT). A video of the response – that yes, more money comes from beer excise than

Polling – One Nation voters attitudes to gas exports

Redbridge, on behalf of The Australia Institute, surveyed a nationally representative sample of 2,010 Australians about their knowledge of, and opinions on, Australia’s gas exports. One Nation voters are more likely to correctly respond that more than 59% of gas is exported and are among the most supportive of taxing Australian gas exports.

Lies of Emission

by Polly Hemming, Skye Predavec and Richard Denniss

Through official communications that amplify fossil fuel industry narratives, exaggerate progress, and promote false solutions, it undermines science, delays decarbonisation, and legitimises fossil fuel expansion. Addressing this requires systemic reforms to prevent and hold government accountable for misleading climate information. This report is submitted to the Senate Inquiry into Greenwashing. The original submission and related

The Economics of Deception: Greenwashing as a rational market Strategy

by Polly Hemming and Richard Denniss

Greenwashing in Australia is a symptom of deeper regulatory and economic failures—primarily, the failure to require, enable, and reward genuine emissions reductions and environmental protection. Without structural reform that mandates and incentivises environmental performance, greenwashing will remain a rational, government-enabled market strategy. The original submission and related documents can be found here.

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