Opinions
May 2022
Real wages should rise – anything else means declining living standards
This week the election campaign has turned to discussion about the increase to the minimum wage, with suggestions that an increase either in line with the curent rate of inflation of 5.1% or marginally above it (such as the ACTU’s proposal of a 5.5% increase) would bring about a return to 1970s style wage sprials.
With falling real incomes and rising prices many people don’t believe the story of prosperity Scott Morrison is preaching
While it makes economic and political sense to suggest, as Anthony Albanese has, that the minimum wage, and indeed most wages, rise inline with the rate of inflation Scott Morrison has suggested such a move would be ‘reckless and dangerous’. What’s far more dangerous and reckless is letting real wages and consumer spending fall just
Why commentary that wages growing in line with inflation will drive up inflation is completely misguided
Today the opposition leader, Anthony Albanese was asked about wages in the following exchange: Journalist: “You said that you don’t want people to go backwards. Does that mean that you would support a wage hike of 5.1% just to keep up with inflation? Anthony Albanese: “Absolutely”. Any other response would be to suggest that real
Why the Days of Safe Liberal Seats are Almost Over
Here is one truth about this election: the Liberal Party is risking its future on a prime minister who likely doesn’t have one. After years of neglect, it should come as no surprise that many Liberal voters would be looking for an alternative. What is a surprise is that the Liberal Party machine, as distinct
Rate rises are going to cause a housing affordability crunch
For most of the past decade the talk about housing affordability has focussed on house prices. As fiscal policy director, Greg Jericho notes in his Guardian Australia column, falling interest rates since November 2010 have made paying off a mortgage less onerous than it otherwise would have given the soaring house prices.
April 2022
It is time to talk about truth in political advertising
Before a vote has been cast, one election verdict has already been delivered. The campaign has been too light on policy and too heavy on misleading scare tactics. Our democracy is suffering for it. In just the first weeks of the election campaign, we have seen heated accusations of misleading claims from all sides. Waleed
High inflation means real wages have plummeted
The March CPI figures showing that inflation rose 5.1% over the past 12 months is not just the highest level since the introduction of the GST it also signals the biggest fall in real wages since then as well.
Lest we forget the horror of war, from Gallipoli to the Pacific
On ANZAC Day our nation remembers and honours those who lost their lives in that failed, bloody mission at Gallipoli in 1915. Today, with a war in Europe and instability closer to home, it’s worth contemplating how we can best honour the memory of the fallen by avoiding repeating the mistakes of the past.
The election campaign needs to tackle climate change
In the week before the election campaign began the IPCC released its latest report that contained warnings that deep, rapid and sustained emissions reductions are needed to prevent temperatures from rising 1.5C or 2C above pre-industrial levels.
We (still) need to talk about insecure work
Business groups and conservative media are happy to discuss insecure work as if it is nothing new – stable and part of a healthy economy that provides workers with independence. But this is not the case, with insecure forms of work – casual, gigs, temporary work and short-term contracts – taking up a growing share of jobs in Australia.
Canberra is increasingly outsourcing its national role. That needs to stop
In the final days before the federal election was called, the new South Australian Premier Peter Malinauskas came to Canberra to deliver a blistering National Press Club address. One seasoned journalist described the speech as Obama-esque. While Scott Morrison and Anthony Albanese criss-crossed the country visiting the states to make local announcements in the then
The election campaign needs to be more than a quiz show
The election campaign thus far has been dominated with gotcha questions that unfortunately have missed the vital need to examine the different policies on offer at a time when Australia’s economy is in a state of extreme flux.
Low wage growth in Australia didn’t happen by accident – it’s the system working as intended
The only people in Australia who can boost wage growth are employers and the only way they can do that is by giving people pay rises.
House prices means interest rates do not need to rise much to inflict great costs
The more than a decade long period of the Reserve Bank going without raising interest rates looks set to end. Rising inflation and the unwinding of the pandemic restrictions and border closures means that the emergency cash rate of 0.1% will soon go up. But at the moment the market expects before the end of next year that it will rise to above 3%.
Coalition’s federal budget prioritises re-election over good of Australians
Economists are fond of saying that Budgets reveal a government’s priorities and this year’s federal budget reveals the Morrison government’s number one priority is getting re-elected. In one way, that’s understandable- all governments want to be re-elected. But as the Treasurer’s speech outlined, these are uncertain times. Australia is facing some very real problems like
March 2022
A slap-dash budget revealing a government with no idea why it is in power
This year’s budget was transparently targeted towards the May election.
It’s Official: Scott Morrison Has Given Up On Trying To Win Over Young Voters
Scott Morrison is betting his political life that young people won’t pay much attention to tonight’s budget or change their vote if they did. This is why he announced no new spending to help those struggling with high rents, high uni fees, or expensive public transport in this year’s Federal Budget. And it’s why he
Alison Pennington: Budget billions wasted as real wages go backwards
The federal government’s budget would have us believe that the cost of living is a sudden problem because of higher oil prices. But the real reason people are feeling the pinch is because their real wages are going backwards. The budget forecasts wage growth of 2.75 per cent in 2021-22, below inflation which is forecast
A short-term budget with no vision or coherency
The 2022-23 budget is one of the most shameless election year budgets in memory.
In next week’s budget watch out for the tax cut that won’t cut your tax
Next Tuesday, Treasurer Josh Frydenberg will deliver the 2022-23 budget. As it is only 2 months from the next federal election, the budget will be even more politically charged than usual.
Morrison’s economic lies
Scott Morrison lies about the economy all the time. He can’t help himself. He tells big lies about transitioning away from fossil fuels and small lies about the role of his office in the way grants are directed to marginal seats. He tells strategic lies about the union movement engaging in “a campaign of extortion”
The era of the great carbon fraud is upon us
We are entering the great era of carbon fraud. Instead of rushing to end fossil fuels, there is going to be a gold rush for carbon offsets, dirty hydrogen and carbon capture and storage (CCS), all designed not to stop climate change, but to actually drive up the consumption of coal, oil and gas. There
Flat wages and booming house prices cause housing affordability to plunge
Since the stimulus measures introduced in 2020 to prop up the housing market during the pandemic, house prices have exploded. In 2021 property prices across Australia’s capital cities rose an astonishing 24%. Combined with the stagnant wages growth of the past 8 years, housing affordability has fallen dramatically.
Record number of people working multiple jobs reveals the problems for workers
The latest Labour Account figures from the Bureau of Statistics reveal that at the end of last year a record percent of people were working more than one job.
All of us pay for natural disasters like Qld and NSW floods
Defence Minister Peter Dutton’s no doubt well-meaning attempt to raise money for Queensland flood victims though a GoFundMe appeal this week revealed two concerning disconnects from reality. One was the Government’s failure to grasp the scope of the new era of climate disasters we now face. The second was a failure to meet expectations for
Australia’s Lopsided Economic Recovery
While the headline news of 3.4% GDP growth in the December quarter of 2021 might suggest the economy is bouncing back, Greg Jericho, Policy Director for the Centre for Future Work, has found that the national accounts reveal just how badly workers are missing out.
February 2022
Loss of Bargaining Power Explains Wage Stagnation
The latest wages data from the Bureau of Statistics shows that in 2021 real wages plummeted, with inflation raising by 3.5%, while wages increased just 2.3%.
Senate should flex its muscles to strengthen democracy
Australians are confused about the Senate. That is the unmistakable conclusion of the Australia Institute’s national poll of Australians on their knowledge of and attitudes towards the upper house, the largest and most comprehensive poll of its kind. However, that does not mean the Senate is not important in the public’s democratic engagement. In fact,
Largest coal plant to close early, but where is the national roadmap to manage the rest?
Australia’s largest power station is shutting down in 2025, seven years early. Origin Energy, having bought the power station from the New South Wales government less than 10 years ago, now wants to retire its last remaining coal asset. Upon announcement, the Origin Energy CEO stated “the reality is the economics of coal-fired power stations
Interest Rates and the Federal Election
For the first time in a decade the coming election will be at a time of increasing inflation and talk of rising interest rate. And while it is clear interest rates are always a political hot potato, Greg Jericho writes in his latest Guardian Australia column that we should not lose sight of the need for government support.
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