July 2023
If the unemployment rises to 4.5% who is likely to lose their job?
The RBA is currently targeting a 4.5% unemployment rate, and that is going to hurt young, low skilled and low paid workers,
June 2023
Bolstered by a biased tax system, house prices keep rising
As interest rates rise, the gains from negative gearing increase.
Blame Game on Inflation has Only Just Begun
Every inflationary episode embodies a power struggle within society over who benefits from inflation, who loses out – and who will bear the cost of getting inflation back down.
The economy is slowing as households get smashed by yet more rate rises
A slowing economy and households closing their wallets is bad news with a Reserve Bank determined to keep raising rates
The level of public housing needs to return to previous levels
Australia needs more housing, and we definitely need more public housing
May 2023
Real wages falls and interest rates rises signal tough times for households and the economy
You can’t sustain household spending while real wages continue to fall, and households are starting to let everyone know
Wages are growing solidly but real wages continue to plummet
Wages are growing the best they have for 11 years, but real wages are now back at the level they were 14 years ago
Affordability of a Liveable Jobseeker Payment is a Non-Issue
Commonwealth on Track for Diminutive Deficit or Surplus in 2022-2023 In the lead-up to its 2023-24 budget, the Labor Government finds itself in an awkward position, accepting that the Jobseeker payment is “seriously inadequate” and an impediment to regaining work, yet professing that it lacks the financial capacity to afford a meaningful increase anytime soon.
April 2023
After the NSW election, privatisation is politically dead in Australia
Last month’s New South Wales election ejected the final mainland Coalition state government from office.
Can a stockmarket gamble pay for the housing crisis?
Australia is in the midst of a housing crisis. Record numbers of Australians are in severe housing stress and it’s not just people with rising interest rates on their mortgages. Fewer and fewer people can afford a roof over their head and more and more people are sleeping rough on the streets or in their car.
March 2023
Australian Inflation Reflects a Historic Redistribution from Workers to Bosses
The upsurge of inflation since the COVID-19 lockdowns has not had equal impacts on all Australians. Workers and low-income people have experienced the worst losses: both because their incomes, in most cases, have not kept up with prices, and because they are more dependent on essential goods and services (like shelter, food, and energy) than higher-income households.
February 2023
Rising political costs of keeping the stage three tax cuts
If the Albanese government were looking for some political cover to remove the chokehold of the $254 billion stage three income tax cuts on the budget, it could do worse than look to the International Monetary Fund’s latest advice.
January 2023
Nothing to see here
If a pandemic killed 15,000 people and nobody seemed to notice, was it really a pandemic? In Australia last year, COVID-19 killed more people than lung cancer, breast cancer, prostate cancer, car accidents and drowning combined. And in addition to the 15,000 deaths directly attributed to COVID, the Australian Bureau of Statistics tells us that
The RBA’s policy guide is wrong
The unemployment rate published by the Australian Bureau of Statistics is an incredibly stable, accurate and reliable indicator of something almost entirely irrelevant. It provides us with 63 years’ worth of raw data on the number of Australians who worked for less than one hour, were actively seeking work and, because they had no caring responsibilities, were available to start work immediately.
December 2022
Inequality and poverty is a policy choice – and the Stage 3 tax cuts will make both worse
When you reduce the revenue available to fund government services, you inevitably increase inequality
The economy is slowing as the Reserve Bank hits the brake
The build up of savings during the pandemic is over – now we need strong income growth to keep the economy going as the Reserve Bank tries to slow it.
The Reserve Bank needs to watch that it doesn’t push the economy off a cliff
For most of this year, the warnings and news about inflation have been one of hope for the best but experience the worst. Predictions of future inflation growth have continually been revised upwards and with it has been the suggestion that interest rates need to keep rising.
November 2022
Rough times ahead for Australia’s economy as oil, gas and coal companies celebrate
The latest economic outlook from the OECD highlights the precarious path for Australia over the next few years.
Wages growth improves but real wages fall at a record rate
The latest wages price index figures show that for the first time since 2013 wages grew by more than 3% in the past year.
Gas companies are profiting off of human misery – we need a windfall profits tax
Russia’s illegal invasion of Ukraine caused a massive surge in gas and LNG prices that have enabled gas companies around the world, including Australia to make record-level profits.
Multi-Employer Bargaining Necessary for Fixing Wages Crisis
Proposed reforms to Commonwealth industrial relations laws would create more opportunities for collective bargaining to occur on a multi-employer basis, rather than being limited solely to individual workplaces or enterprises. Business groups have attacked this proposal as a dramatic change that would supposedly spark widespread work stoppages and industrial chaos.
With household incomes set to fall, we need to think about what matters in the economy
The current tightening of monetary policy is undoubtedly having an impact. While it may take some time for the slowing of inflation to flow through to the official CPI figures – especially given the level of inflation that is being imported – the economy is set to slow drastically.
Would further interest rate rises do more harm than good?
In the past 7 months, the Reserve Bank has increased the cash rate by 275 basis points. That is as fast as any time since the RBA became independent. Given the pace of inflation growth, the rises are not wholly without cause, but as policy director, Greg Jericho notes in his Guardian Australia column the main drivers of inflation are now easing, and wages are yet to take off. In that case, should the RBA continue to raise rates given it will only slow the economy further?
October 2022
Labor’s budget gives wellbeing focus a pathway to future prominence
Talk is cheap, the saying goes, but decades of neoliberalism and failed trickle-down economics means Australia needs to begin some new and more meaningful conversations about the kind of country we want to be.
Inflation is soaring and real wages are plummeting
On Wednesday the latest inflation figures showed that in the 12 months to September prices across Australia grew by 7.3% – the fastest rate since 1990.
Australia’s housing crisis is self-inflicted. We need four reforms to reverse it
How is it that in Australia, one of the richest countries in the world, we have a housing crisis where hundreds of thousands of renters can’t afford a roof over their head? To figure out why rents are soaring, we need to look at the broader political disease: we have spent about two decades trying
Families change but the same problems remain
The latest data from the Bureau of Statistics on families shows that more than ever before couples with dependants are both working.
Even if you were a neoclassical ideologue, Stage 3 ain’t it
In the past twelve months low-income earners have seen their real wages fall faster than ever before, their mortgage interest rates rise faster than ever before and, here’s the real kicker: their average tax rates actually increase. To be clear, someone working on the minimum wage has seen the amount of tax they pay rise
With a global recession looming the cure of inflation looks to be worse than the disease
This week the IMF released its latest World Economic Outlook. And the outlook is dire. Economic growth around the world was downgraded with recession-like conditions being predicted for many advanced economies including the USA, UK and much of the EU.
Jim Chalmers has a unique chance to remake Australia – or to squander $243bn on the rich
Jim Chalmers has a once in century opportunity to spend a quarter of a trillion dollars on nation building without going into a cent of debt. In fact, if he chooses his public investments well he could drive growth up, cost of living down, and pay down the Morrison Government’s debt faster than currently expected.
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