June 2017
RBA board needs an ACTU representative to help keep wages up
The RBA governor Philip Lowe recently encouraged Australian workers to stop being so scared of technological change and foreign competition and start demanding higher wages. But if the governor wants to really understand why so many Australians have been willing to settle for so little for so long perhaps he should ask the Treasurer to appoint the ACTU
Dogged manufacturing sector quietly adds 40,000 jobs
Ahead of a National Manufacturing Summit, a new report outlines the industry’s dogged resilience in difficult times, its importance to the Australian economy, and its more hopeful future prospects.
May 2017
Tasmanian Budget: Smiles all around, but no long-term vision for the future
This week’s budget was full of good news about good economic times. The combination of favourable economic conditions and some good economic management could have been a once in a generation opportunity to build for the state’s future. Built on the back of our clean and green image, a boom in revenues has been fuelled
Booms bust: Tassie budget misses chance to invest in future
Today’s State budget has reflected our strengthening economy, built on the back of our clean and green image. The boom, fuelled by growth in tourism and the property market, has increased revenue, delivering a surplus of $54 million dollars. The Australia Institute Tasmania have warned that if investment is not made in vital long-term prosperity
Palaszczuk and Turnbull governments are Adani mine’s lonely fans
Australia isn’t trying to stop global warming, we’re subsidising it. While here in the ACT we’re on track to source 100% of our electricity from renewable energy by 2020, in Queensland the state government is doubling down on the number one contributor to climate change – coal. Despite banks, economists and the Australian people showing
African white elephant: Australian taxpayers could finance South African coal
African white elephant, a report released today by Jubilee Australia and The Australia Institute examines the proposal for Australia’s export credit agency to fund a coal mine in South Africa. The tax payer-backed Export Finance and Insurance Corporation, known as Efic, is considering a loan to develop the Boikarabelo coal project in Limpopo Province, South
Targeted: Review of limit on tax advice deductions
New analysis of tax data shows that limiting the deduction for managing tax affairs to $3,000 is likely to impact only very high income earners. The majority of Australians make no claim for managing their tax affairs, and even amongst those in the top 3% of income earners, most claims do not exceed the $3,000
New wage growth figures bad news for workers and the budget
Latest data from the ABS shows wages growth stuck at 1.9% with no signs of any pick up. Wages growth has now been stuck at roughly this level for the last 3 years. The ABS has now confirmed that wages growth is running at a slower rate than inflation (Consumer Price Index). According to the
Turnbull delivers for electorate – Capital gains tax discount by electorate
New research from The Australia Institute has found that the Prime Minister’s electorate reaps the greatest benefit from the capital gains tax discount, by a large margin. The CGT discount is expected to cost the budget $9.6 billion dollars this year (2016-17) $44 billion over the next four years. Historical data also shows that, in
Budget 2017: Banks and miners can just pay up
The big banks have just discovered what Australia’s unemployed have known for some time, in modern Australia it is risky to be the underdog. For the last decade, at least, Australian politics has revolved around what you can get away with, not what the country needs, and the results have been nasty. And as the
Budget Wrap-Up
Commonwealth Treasurer Scott Morrison tabled his 2017-18 budget in Parliament House on May 9, and the Centre for Future Work’s Director Jim Stanford was there in the lock-up to analyse its likely impacts. Here are some of our main impressions and comments:
Pocket Money: Budget 2017
Tonight, as the Treasurer rose to give his Budget address in the house, our Deputy Director Ebony Bennett grabbed our Chief Economist Richard Denniss and Senior economist Matt Grudnoff for a chat about the Budget, straight after they emerged from the Budget lockup. Thi podcast isn’t a comprehensive discussion of the Budget, but we tried
Media release: Adani could get free coal costing Qld budget as much as $1.2 billion
Following media report that the Queensland Government and Adani are negotiating a discount on the royalties the company would pay to extract the state/s coal resources, The Australia Institute has calculated the potential cost of a ‘roylaty holiday’ to the taxpayer. The Courier Mail reported that the government and Adani working on this deal: Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk
A House A House A Kingdom For A House
Housing Affordability is not only a massive policy failure, but is increasingly vying for the gold medal for the most spin and econobabble in Australian politics. Episode 18 of Follow The Money, takes on the vexed issue and tackles the latest bad idea that won’t help housing affordability – raiding your super to pay for a
Adani offers false hope to South Australia
Steel order of 56,000 tonnes would be less than 1% of Whyalla steelworks capacity. Today’s announcement that the Adani coal project would ‘throw a lifeline’ to South Australian steel producer Arrium is the latest piece of deception from a company renowned for breaking its big economic promises. Canberra-based think tank The Australia Institute, which has
April 2017
Coalition should be rejecting populist subsidies for Adani’s rail line
Barnaby Joyce says the federal Coalition’s desire to subsidise Adani’s Carmichael coal mine means the government will attract “some flak” from environmentalists. No doubt there will be, but he might do well to prepare for some friendly fire as well. [This article was first published in the Australian Financial Review – here] The government should expect some flak
Housing affordability crisis hits retired Australians
New research from The Australia Institute with YourLifeChoices, published in the Retirement Affordability Index 2017, shows the housing affordability crisis is not just an issue for younger Australians. Economic measures usually put all retired Australians into a single group. This analysis breaks down Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) Household Expenditure Survey separately by: couples who
Economists Debunk Job-Creation Claims of Penalty Rate Cut
The Fair Work Commission has ruled that penalty rates for Sunday and public holiday work in the retail and hospitality sectors should be reduced, which would reduce hourly wages on those days by up to $10 per hour. Business lobbyists predict this will spark a hiring surge in stores and restaurants, as employers take advantage of lower wages to extend hours and ramp up operations. The economic logic of this claim is highly suspect, however – especially in light of the fundamental factors which truly limit employment in these sectors (namely, the sluggish growth of personal incomes). 78 Australian economists have signed a public letter debunking these job-creation claims, arguing that the FWC’s decision will lead to more inequality, not more employment.
Why big business doesn’t care about deficits
Two days after demanding $48 billion worth of tax cuts, BCA president Grant King warned us that “if we don’t make changes, if we don’t get on top of the budget deficit, debt is going to be rising and it will be a burden for generations to come”. [This article was first published by the Australian Financial
March 2017
$10m limit only excludes 1.4% of companies while large company tax cut would be worth $11 billion pa
The Australia Institute has calculated that denying tax cuts to those companies with revenue over $10 million would exclude only 1.4 percent of companies. Despite making up only 1.4% of companies, the $10 million+ group account for 78 percent of company tax collections and would therefore take the lion’s share of the benefit from the Coalitions original
Don’t Pop Champagne Corks Over Longest Growth Streak
On April 1, Australia will surpass the Netherland’s old record to mark the longest unbroken expansion of real GDP in modern history. While this result permits much chest-thumping on the part of some politicians, we should never assume that there is an automatic correlation between GDP growth and the well-being of people, society, and the environment.
Pain of penalty rate cuts can not be avoided through transition measures
Analysis from The Australia Institute’s Centre for Future Work has shown that proposals for phasing in lower penalty rates for work on Sundays and holidays will not “protect” the workers affected by those cuts, and in some cases would make things worse. Simulations of various proposals from political and business leaders for deferring lower penalty
Voters oppose company tax cuts, dole cuts: Poll
Polling of the marginal seat of Dickson, the seat held by Peter Dutton, shows strong opposition to two Coalition policies before the current parliamentary sitting – welfare cuts, and cutting the company tax rate. The survey, conducted by ReachTEL for Canberra-based think tank The Australia Institute, asked respondents if the government should cut, keep the
How to invent a clean energy company
This was first published in EcoGeneration online on 8 March 2017 and in the print edition. The common view of invention is that it is unexpected. The people who do it are extraordinary individuals. There are risk takers but also naturally creative geniuses. Ancient Archimedes came up with his theory of buoyancy by his spontaneous
Where did all the rationalists go?
Are there any economic rationalists left in the Australian business community? Where are the fiscal conservatives when you need them? [This article was first published in the Australian Financial Review – here] Hard headed budget hawks are missing in action when it comes to our governments giving a $1 billion subsidy to help build the
Debt phobia is doing long-term harm
The Coalition Government is still paying a heavy price for Tony Abbott’s “ability” to simplify complex policy issues down into three-word slogans. His promise to “stop the debt” worked a treat for him in opposition but it made him look a failure as Prime Minister when debt grew rapidly on his watch. [This article was
Polling Brief – Cutting Sunday and Holiday Penalty Rates
Voters in Braddon do not want to see workers paid less on Sundays and Holidays, polling from The Australia Institute has found. The polling of 754 respondents in the electorate of Braddon was undertaken on 2nd March in the State electorate of Braddon through ReachTEL. Respondents were asked if they believed more jobs would be
February 2017
Employers’ pyrrhic penalty rates win reflects self-defeating economics
The Fair Work Commission unveiled its long-awaited decision on penalty rates for Sunday and holiday work this week. Penalty rates for most retail and hospitality workers will be cut, by up to 50 percentage points of the base wage. Hardest hit will be retail employees: their wages on Sundays will fall by $10 an hour or more. For regular weekend workers, that could mean $6000 in lost annual income.
Dawson Polling: One Nation surge, support for RET, opposition to company tax cuts
New polling of Dawson, the seat held by George Christensen, conducted by ReachTEL, commissioned by The Australia Institute, shows support for Pauline Hanson’s One Nation party at level pegging with the LNP at 30% of the primary vote. Issue-based questions in the same poll revealed strong support in Dawson for an increase to the renewable
Cutting penalty rates will reinforce wage stagnation
The Fair Work Commission’s decision to reduce penalty rates for Sundays and holidays in retail and hospitality jobs will reinforce wage stagnation and further widen income inequality, which is bad news for the economy as a whole, according to Dr. Jim Stanford, Director of the Centre for Future Work at the Australia Institute. “It’s painfully
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