Research // Wages & Entitlements
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December 2024
Solid Foundations, Bright Future
New South Wales has one of the most prosperous and productive economies in Australia, with a diverse base of economic activity and strong labour market. However, years of austerity have hollowed out its public sector, creating one of the proportionally smallest state public sectors in the country in terms of both economic activity and employment.
Submission to Industrial Relations Victoria Inquiry on Restricting Non-Disclosure Agreements (NDAs) in Workplace Sexual Harassment Cases
It is generally reported that NDAs can benefit victim-survivors by providing anonymity and privacy where that is the victim-survivor’s choice. However, it is also reported that power imbalances between victim-survivors on the one hand and perpetrators and employers/organisation on the other have left workers feeling they had little choice but to sign NDAs. NDAs have
Economic Prosperity, Public Sector Restraint
New report contrasts South Australia’s economic progress with continued public sector wage restraint By many measures, South Australia has enjoyed the strongest economy of any state in Australia. Its economic growth has been faster in recent years than any state – and in per capita terms, its prosperity has improved twice as fast as the
November 2024
PALM visas, superannuation and tax
The Pacific-Australia Labour Mobility (PALM) scheme is often presented as being beneficial to all parties—Australia, Pacific workers, and those workers’ home countries. In reality, the benefits are weighted in favour of Australia.
October 2024
Doing it Tough
This report documents the results of a recent survey of Australian adults regarding their experience of the cost of living crisis. Australian workers are doing it tough. Costs are increasing faster than wages and incomes. Those with less are doing it the toughest.
May 2024
Budget 2024-25: Resists Austerity, Reduces Inflation, Targets Wage Gains
Commonwealth Treasurer Jim Chalmers delivered his 2024-25 budget to Parliament. While it booked a surplus for 2023-24 (the second consecutive surplus), it increased total spending for future years, and forecasts continued small deficits. In the wake of the economic slowdown resulting from RBA interest rate hikes, this new spending is needed and appropriate.
March 2024
Submission to the Fair Work Commission Modern Award Review 2023-2024, Work and Care
The Fair Work Commission’s Review of Modern Awards 2023-24 is considering the impact of workplace relations settings on work and care. This submission argues for good quality, secure part-time jobs to achieve more gender-equitable sharing of care and to support women’s full economic participation.
October 2023
Submission to the Senate Education and Employment Legislation Committee Inquiry into the Fair Work Legislation Amendment (Closing Loopholes) Bill 2023
Experts from the Centre for Future Work recently made a submission to the Senate committee studying the “Closing Loopholes” bill, which would make several reforms to the Fair Work Act.
September 2023
Profit-Price Inflation: Theory, International Evidence, and Policy Implications
New research confirms that corporate profits in Australia, despite recent moderation, remain well above historic norms, and must fall further in order to allow a rebuilding of real wages in Australia that have been badly damaged by recent inflation.
April 2023
Profits and Inflation in Mining and Non-Mining Sectors
New research from the Centre for Future Work at the Australia Institute has shed further light on the role of higher corporate profits in driving higher prices in Australia since the COVID pandemic.
December 2022
Polling – Wages and cost of living
The Australia Institute surveyed a nationally representative sample of 1,001 Australians about their views on wages and cost of living. The majority of Australians report that their wages have not kept up with the cost of living over the past 12 months. For two in three Australians (68%) their wages have either not grown at
November 2022
The Cumulative Costs of Wage Caps for Essential Service Workers in NSW
Since 2012 the NSW government has arbitrarily suppressed pay gains for workers in state-funded public services (including health care, education, public administration, emergency services, and more). At first those pay caps were justified as a deficit-reduction measure, and then later as being supposedly tied to inflation trends. But both those arguments have been discarded, given state surpluses in most years since the cap was introduced, and now the dramatic acceleration in inflation (now running more than twice as fast as allowed compensation gains).
September 2022
Robbed at Sea
Seafarers perform difficult, often dangerous work that is essential to the operation of global supply chains, delivering all the merchandise we take for granted in modern life. Yet because of the legal vacuum governing international marine traffic, a lack of resources and attention for enforcement by national regulators, and the corporate strategies of shipping companies and their customers, seafarers are subject to some of the worst exploitation and abuse of any occupation in the world economy.
August 2022
An Economy That Works for People
The new Commonwealth government is hosting a major Jobs Summit in September 2022, bring together representatives from a range of stakeholder groups to discuss the challenges facing Australia’s labour market, and how to achieve strong employment, job quality and security, and better skills and training opportunities.
July 2022
Are Wages or Profits Driving Australia’s Inflation?
Labour costs have played an insignificant role in the recent increase in inflation, accounting for just 15 percent of economy wide price increases while profits have played an overwhelming role, accounting for about 60 percent of recent inflation.
June 2022
Wages, Prices and the Federal Election
The recent federal election featured important debate regarding the rising cost of living in Australia, and whether and how wages should be boosted to keep up with higher prices. One exchange, late in the campaign, occurred when ALP leader Anthony Albanese stated his belief that wages should keep up with prices — but then was
May 2022
Wage price spiral or price wage spiral?
Firms like Woolworths would have still seen profit growth if they paid all of their workers a five percent pay rise and did not increase prices.
Wage growth played no significant role in the recent surge in inflation and, as the analysis shows, maintaining real wages across the entire economy as distinct from merely maintaining the minimum wage in real terms would have a trivial impact on the price level even if firms seek to recoup all of a nominal wage rise as further price increases.
The Wages Crisis Revisited
A comprehensive review of Australian wage trends indicates that wage growth is likely to remain stuck at historically weak levels despite the dramatic disruptions experienced by the Australian labour market through the COVID-19 pandemic. The report finds that targeted policies to deliberately lift wages are needed to break free of the low-wage trajectory that has
December 2021
Putting a Cap on Community
The Victorian Government’s policy of capping of local government rates revenue in Victoria is a regressive move on economic, social and democratic grounds. By arbitrarily tying the growth in total rates revenue in each local government area to price indexes, the state government restricts the ability of local governments to respond to the COVID-19 crisis
June 2020
April 2020
Log of Extraordinary IR Measures During COVID-19 Shutdowns
COVID-19 containment measures have suspended large sections of the economy. Governments have committed over $220 billion in income supports to workers and firms. The $130 billion JobKeeper wage subsidy scheme is the most extensive “shock absorber” (with worrying exclusions of many casual and migrant workers). With the scheme now in place, assessment of the government’s COVID-19 measures is now shifting to implementation. This includes effects on the laws and regulations governing wages and how businesses and employees (and their unions) interact to determine the terms and conditions of employment.
Polling – Casual workers and the wage subsidy
The Commonwealth government’s proposed JobKeeper wage subsidy scheme represents an important and promising response to the COVID-19 shutdown of several key sectors of Australia’s economy. The scheme would support an estimated $130 billion worth of wage payments over the coming 6 months, keeping millions of Australians in jobs even if their employers experience major revenue losses from the restrictions that have been imposed on activity, mobility, and work during the pandemic.
March 2020
Submission to the 2020 annual wage review
The Centre for Future Work has made a submission to the 2020 annual wage review conducted by the Fair Work Commission. The submission compiles evidence showing that the annual minimum wage adjustments (which flow through into wages specified in the Modern Awards, as well as some enterprise agreements and individual contracts) have played a more important role in recent years in supporting the overall level of wage growth in Australia’s labour market. Without relatively strong minimum wage increases since 2017 (of 3% or higher for three consecutive years), Australian wage growth would still be languishing at all-time record lows of under 2% per year.
In this context, the Centre argued it is vital the Commission proceed with a normal, healthy minimum wage increase for 1 July, 2020, with full flow-through into Award wages. Otherwise wage growth will slump significantly (to an estimated 0.7%, or even lower), heightening the risk of economy-wide deflation.
The Same Mistake Twice
New research from the Australia Institute’s Centre for Future Work reveals the consequences of freezing public service pay, both for public sector workers and for the broader economy.
February 2020
The Long-Term Consequences of Wage Freezes for Real Wages, Lifetime Earnings, and Superannuation
New research from the Centre for Future Work has dramatised the lasting consequences for workers’ lifetime incomes – even after they retire – of wage freezes.
A wage freeze is often described as a “temporary sacrifice,” that supposedly ends once normal annual wage increments are restored. However, this report confirms that the legacy of even a temporary pay freeze is a permanent reduction in lifetime incomes and superannuation, which can easily ultimately result in hundreds of thousands of dollars of lost income. These long-term effects are illustrated with reference to a real-world example: an 18-month pay freeze imposed on workers at Jetstar in 2014-2016.
December 2019
Needle in a Haystack
The latest economic statistics have confirmed that Australia’s economy is barely limping along – with quarterly GDP growth of just 0.4%. One of the weakest spots in the report was consumer spending, which recorded its weakest performance since December 2008 (amidst the worst days of the Global Financial Crisis). This was despite the supposed benefit of recent Commonwealth government tax cuts in boosting disposable income and stimulating more spending.
Analysis from Dr. Jim Stanford shows that the tax cut is in fact completely invisible in the macroeconomic data.
November 2019
The Relationship Between Superannuation Contributions and Wages in Australia
New research from the Centre for Future Work shows that scheduled increases in employers’ minimum statutory superannuation contributions would have no negative effects on future wage growth, and that Australia’s economy can afford both higher wages and higher employer contributions to superannuation.
October 2019
Messing With Success
The Centre for Future Work has released new research estimating the negative impacts on wages and spending power of the Victoria government’s proposed 2% cap on wage increases for the state’s large public sector workforce.