The Centre for Future Work’s research team has analysed the Commonwealth Government’s budget. As expected with a Federal election looming, the budget is not a horror one of austerity. However, the 2025-2026 budget is characterised by the absence of any significant initiatives.  There is very little in this budget that is new other than the

Australia has a much higher poverty rate among people aged over 65 than Sweden and Norway. Unlike Australia, Sweden and Norway’s robust public pension systems ensure retirement security. Australia could reduce levels of poverty in retirement by increasing spending on the Age Pension. This could be funded by reducing the inequitable tax concessions on superannuation given to high income earners.

Commonwealth Treasurer Jim Chalmers delivered his 2024-25 budget to Parliament. While it booked a surplus for 2023-24 (the second consecutive surplus), it increased total spending for future years, and forecasts continued small deficits. In the wake of the economic slowdown resulting from RBA interest rate hikes, this new spending is needed and appropriate.

The Australian supermarket sector continues to be dominated by a duopoly of two firms: Coles and Woolworths. There is increasing evidence that this duopoly has used its market power to propagate and magnify recent inflationary shocks. Supermarket profits have increased in recent years and there is now evidence that margins have also increased. Food retailers

Submission to Senate Standing Committees on Economics inquiry into the Treasury Laws Amendment (Tax Accountability and Fairness) Bill 2023 [Provisions].

A significant increase to the minimum wage, and accompanying increases to award rates, would not have a significant effect on inflation, according to new analysis by the Centre for Future Work at the Australia Institute.
The analysis examines the correlation between minimum wage increases and inflation going back to 1997, and it finds no consistent link between minimum wage increases and inflation.

The Australia Institute argued that the RBA review’s proposal to remove the Australian Parliament’s power to override the RBA on monetary policy is wrong.

On behalf of The Australia Institute, uComms surveyed residents of the federal electorates of Kooyong, Mackellar and Wentworth on 5 February 2024.

Lower income electorates on the fringes of capital cities and rural areas will get the largest benefit from modifying the Stage 3 tax cuts.

The Australia Institute surveyed a sample of 1,379 Australians about their wages growth and the cost of living over the past year.

New research confirms that corporate profits in Australia, despite recent moderation, remain well above historic norms, and must fall further in order to allow a rebuilding of real wages in Australia that have been badly damaged by recent inflation.

The Reserve Bank of Australia’s decisions on interest rate increases rely on the concept of balancing inflation and unemployment.

The Australia-America economic relationship is one of the world’s most consequential relationships, worth over $2 trillion, yet few understand its depth and scale.

The Commonwealth government’s 2023-24 budget reveals a progressive government seeking to help lower paid workers and those struggling to pay bills, support public health care, and pursue investments towards a net zero economy. But it is very much a first step, and leaves much more work to be done to repair past harms done to workers, low-income Australians, public services and infrastructure, and the environment.

The Commonwealth Treasury has released the report of a three-person panel charged with reviewing the structure, governance, and effectiveness of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Treasurer Jim Chalmers accepted in principle all 51 of the panel’s recommendations, ranging from creating a separate board to make decisions on interest rates, to giving the Bank a simpler dual mandate to pursue both price stability and full employment.

New research from the Centre for Future Work at the Australia Institute has revealed how rises in the minimum wage have almost no impact on inflation and given the collapse in the value of the minimum wage in real terms over the past 2 years, a 7% increase is a necessary recompense for Australia’s lowest

New research from the Centre for Future Work at the Australia Institute has shed further light on the role of higher corporate profits in driving higher prices in Australia since the COVID pandemic.

Workers in Australia have suffered considerable economic losses as a result of accelerating inflation since the onset of the COVID pandemic. Reaching a year-over-year rate of 7.8% by end-2022, inflation has rapidly eroded the real purchasing power of workers’ incomes; average wages are currently growing at less than half the pace of prices. Now, severe

This is the Australia Institute’s submission to the review into the functions and operations of the Reserve Bank of Australia (“the RBA”).

The Australia Institute surveyed a nationally representative sample of 1,001 Australians about their views on wages and cost of living. The majority of Australians report that their wages have not kept up with the cost of living over the past 12 months. For two in three Australians (68%) their wages have either not grown at

Over the past year, inflation has accelerated both in Australia and in most advanced economies, to rates much faster than have been observed for many years. Not unsurprisingly, this has caused much concern among people whose cost of living has risen abruptly. It has also created great challenges for policy makers: the risks of tackling higher inflation are high, given that the conventional response is to reduce aggregate demand, economic activity, and employment in order to “cool off” spending and thus reduce price pressures. This can mean that the “cure” can be worse than the “disease” – especially if, as occurred in the 1980s and 1990s, a recession follows efforts to constrain inflation.

The roles of profits, wages and costs in driving inflation has been widely discussed in recent months. Claims by the Business Council of Australia that profit shares are at a 20-year low are not supported by official data sources.

The new Commonwealth government is hosting a major Jobs Summit in September 2022, bring together representatives from a range of stakeholder groups to discuss the challenges facing Australia’s labour market, and how to achieve strong employment, job quality and security, and better skills and training opportunities.

Labour costs have played an insignificant role in the recent increase in inflation, accounting for just 15 percent of economy wide price increases while profits have played an overwhelming role, accounting for about 60 percent of recent inflation.

Firms like Woolworths would have still seen profit growth if they paid all of their workers a five percent pay rise and did not increase prices.

Wage growth played no significant role in the recent surge in inflation and, as the analysis shows, maintaining real wages across the entire economy as distinct from merely maintaining the minimum wage in real terms would have a trivial impact on the price level even if firms seek to recoup all of a nominal wage rise as further price increases.

A sustainable social, political and environmental response to the “twin crises” of the COVID-19 pandemic and climate change will require policymaking beyond capitalism. Only by achieving a post-growth response to these crises can we meaningfully shape a future of jobs in renewable-powered industries shaped by organised labour, democratic values and public institutions. Anything less will merely create more markets and more technocratic fixes that reinforce the growing social and environmental inequalities that our current political system cannot overcome.

Bringing forward stage 2 of the tax cuts is ineffective stimulus. Up to 12 times as many jobs could be created if an equivalent amount of money was spent on labour intensive industries.

The latest economic statistics have confirmed that Australia’s economy is barely limping along – with quarterly GDP growth of just 0.4%. One of the weakest spots in the report was consumer spending, which recorded its weakest performance since December 2008 (amidst the worst days of the Global Financial Crisis). This was despite the supposed benefit of recent Commonwealth government tax cuts in boosting disposable income and stimulating more spending.

Analysis from Dr. Jim Stanford shows that the tax cut is in fact completely invisible in the macroeconomic data.

For the last generation macroeconomic policy in Australia has been based on the assumption that unemployment must be maintained at a certain minimum level in order to restrain wages and prevent an outbreak of accelerating inflation. Now, after six years of record-low wage growth – which weakened even further in the latest ABS wage statistics – it is time for that policy to be abandoned.