Research // Tax, Spending & the Budget
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March 2026
National and Electorate polls – taxing gas exports
Five news polls conducted for The Australia Institute reveal an overwhelming majority of Australians want a gas export tax to fund improvements in services like health and aged care.
We have already missed out on $63.8 billion in taxes from gas exports
Australia’s wealth of natural gas reserves mean that the Commonwealth could be benefitting from the high prices caused by conflicts in Ukraine and Middle East. If a 25% tax on Australia’s natural gas exports had been enacted in 2022 it would have already raised $63.8 billion, which could fund a range of social services for
Fossil fuel subsidies in Australia 2026
Fossil fuel subsidies cost Australian governments $16.3 billion in 2025–26, an increase of 9.4% on the previous year. This is a larger increase than the 7.6% growth of the National Disability Insurance Scheme. Growth in fossil fuel subsidies is driven by the federal government’s Fuel Tax Credit Scheme, which cost $10.8 billion in 2025–26. Growth
What the Middle East war means for Australians and gas companies
War in the Middle East will likely increase global energy prices. Australian Government choices will determine how hard this price spike hits Australian households, how huge gas export company profits are and how much tax revenue Australia will collect.
Polling – Farrer attitudes on gas exports
UComms conducted a survey of 1,281 members across the Federal Seat of Farrer on behalf of the Australia Institute. Three quarters (77.7%) agreed or strongly agreed that Australia exports too much gas. 75% of voters strongly agreed (48.1%) or agreed (26.9%) with the statement Gas export corporations should pay a flat 25% tax on gas
February 2026
Tax cuts for those who need them
Low-income workers are suffering the most from falling real wages. LITO changes could give them a $2,300 tax cut. This would be fully paid for by a 25% tax on gas exports. Key beneficiaries would be young people and those in regional areas, with National Party electorates benefiting the most.
Tax: Beer drinkers vs gas companies
Do beer drinkers pay more tax than gas companies? Yes, they do! Independent Senator David Pocock recently asked Treasury officials whether beer excise raised more money than a key tax on the gas industry, Australia’s Petroleum Resource Rent Tax (PRRT). A video of the response – that yes, more money comes from beer excise than
Polling – One Nation voters attitudes to gas exports
Redbridge, on behalf of The Australia Institute, surveyed a nationally representative sample of 2,010 Australians about their knowledge of, and opinions on, Australia’s gas exports. One Nation voters are more likely to correctly respond that more than 59% of gas is exported and are among the most supportive of taxing Australian gas exports.
December 2025
Submission to the Select Committee on the Operation of the Capital Gains Tax Discount
The CGT discount has made housing unaffordable, increased inequality, distorted lending, and is reducing investment and productivity. It should be scrapped.
Understanding the December 2025 gas policy scramble
The Albanese Government has acknowledged Australia’s gas export problem. However, rather than implement a tax that would reduce domestic prices, raise revenue and help the climate, the government looks to be weighing options that favour either Santos or its rivals Origin and Shell.
October 2025
Submission – Queensland Energy Roadmap
The Bill should not pass because the Energy Roadmap proposals could increase Queensland’s emissions by 310 million tonnes to 2050, almost a years’ worth of Australia’s national emissions. This increase from the electricity sector will impose abatement costs of perhaps $98 billion on other parts of the economy. Within the Energy Roadmap there is an
Adani royalty discrepancy
Adani sold coal for $100/t through a period that saw relevant coal prices reach $280/t, resulting in apparent royalty underpayments of almost $400 million. The Queensland Government’s decision to abandon its pursuit of these royalties may be linked to regulatory action around Adani’s Abbot Point coal terminal.
September 2025
Funding creativity in NSW – Submission to the NSW Government Art of Tax Reform consultation
State government cultural funding is dependent on federal revenue, yet Australia’s Federal Government raises little tax revenue by international standards. Arts advocates and state leaders should be vocal in urging the Federal Government to raise more revenue. Raising the State’s GST revenue to match economic growth since 2001 could put $76 million per year into
August 2025
A 3-point plan for gas
Soon after his election victory in May 2025, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese spoke of “doing things the Australian way, not looking towards any other method or ideology from overseas”. He summarised this approach as “progressive patriotism”. Progressive patriotism should be urgently applied to gas policy in Australia. Despite being one of the world’s largest exporters
Submission to the Gas Market Review
Australia Institute research has long documented the comprehensive failure of government policies to prioritise the interests of Australians over multinational gas exporters. Our view is that the incremental technocratic policies of successive governments to solve these issues have failed, and that a fresh approach is needed. The ACTU’s proposal for a 25% tax on gas
Three ways Australia can tax wealth better
Australia taxes wealth very lightly. Imposing a 2% wealth tax on those with net assets over $5 million, an inheritance tax on large estates, and scrapping the CGT discount could raise $70 billion per year.
Submission to the Economic Reform Roundtable
Our submission focuses primarily on the role tax reform should play in the productivity agenda. Tax is an essential element of promoting productivity, primarily because: Additional revenue is required to make productivity-enhancing investments in education, health, infrastructure and other sectors of the economy; Existing tax settings allow for (and in some ways facilitate) growing inequality,
Climate and the Economic Reform Roundtable
The upcoming roundtable appears set to ignore climate change and its impact on the economy. Climate change is already driving up the cost-of-living, and this is only likely to get worse. Climate change will substantially harm productivity, particularly if action is not taken to mitigate its extent and adapt to its impacts.
July 2025
Productivity in the Real World
Claims that Australia faces a productivity crisis are overblown. Weak productivity didn’t cause the current problems facing Australian workers (falling real wages, high interest rates, unaffordability of essentials like housing and energy). Nor will higher productivity fix these problems. Faith that higher productivity will automatically trickle down, to be shared by all workers, is unfounded.
Polling – Tasmanian revenue
YouGov conducted a survey of 842 Tasmanian voters on behalf of The Australia Institute between 12 and 16 June 2025, using an online survey polling methodology. These are the results on potential revenue sources for Tasmania. Full details are provided in the methodology statement. The poll is compliant with the Australian Polling Council’s requirements. The
Tasmanian budget: Raising revenue right
The deterioration of the Tasmanian budget means that net debt is expected to reach $10 billion by 2027-28. This paper outlines how the state could increase revenue by auctioning salmon licences, reforming gambling taxes, increasing mineral royalties, and increasing motor vehicle stamp duties and registration fees. If changes to the GST were also made, $11.4
June 2025
Company Tax and the Productivity Agenda
This submission follows the Productivity Commission’s request for submissions on cutting the company tax. We advance a number of reasons why the company tax should not be cut. We also point out problems with any company tax cut proposal including that the lower tax would mean lower tax refunds for the owners of the company
Polling – Superannuation
YouGov conducted a national survey of 1,535 voters on behalf of The Australia Institute between 6 and 11 June 2025, using an online survey polling methodology. Full details are provided in the methodology statement. The poll is compliant with the Australian Polling Council’s requirements. The margin of error on the effective sample size is 3.2%.
May 2025
Government revenue from LNG exports: Australia vs Qatar
Australia and Qatar are two of the world’s largest exporters of liquefied natural gas, each exporting around 80 million tonnes in 2023, worth $85 billion. From these exports the Qatari Government received $A56 billion, while Australian governments received just $11 billion.
April 2025
War gains: windfall profits on liquified natural gas exports, 2022-24
Companies exporting liquified natural gas from Australia have made windfall profits close to $100 billion since 2022, when energy prices spiked because of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Most of these profits are based on royalty-free gas and no Petroleum Resource Rent Tax was paid. At best, $20 billion in company tax was paid on this
Big Gas is taking the piss: INPEX case study
Australians are being ripped off by gas export corporations.
March 2025
Budget briefing paper 2025-2026
The Centre for Future Work’s research team has analysed the Commonwealth Government’s budget. As expected with a Federal election looming, the budget is not a horror one of austerity. However, the 2025-2026 budget is characterised by the absence of any significant initiatives. There is very little in this budget that is new other than the
Raising revenue right: Better tax ideas for the 48th Parliament
The 48th Parliament has the opportunity to tackle some of Australia’s biggest problems – inequality, poverty, sustainability, health and education challenges. Tackling these problems will take revenue. Fortunately, there is wide range of opportunities to raise more revenue in Australia, in ways that will also make the Australian community fairer and safer. Australia is a
December 2024
Solid Foundations, Bright Future
New South Wales has one of the most prosperous and productive economies in Australia, with a diverse base of economic activity and strong labour market. However, years of austerity have hollowed out its public sector, creating one of the proportionally smallest state public sectors in the country in terms of both economic activity and employment.
Coal royalties in NSW
Coal royalties are a tiny part of NSW Government revenue. Over the last decade, they have averaged only 2.4% of NSW Government revenue. Coal royalties do little to fund regional communities, schools, hospitals, teachers, and nurses.